Has Obama Been Good for Millionaires?

The question of whether Americans are better off than they were four years ago depends, of course, on the American.
For the 12 million unemployed, the answer is most certainly no.
But for many of America's millionaires, the answer may be more affirmative.
A new study from WealthInsight, the London-based wealth-research and data firm (and yes, they are non-partisan), showed that the United States added 1.1 million millionaires between Jan. 1, 2009 and the end of 2011, the latest period measured. There were 5.1 million millionaires in America at the end of 2011, compared with around 4 million at the end of 2008.
That works out to more than 1,000 millionaires a day under the Obama administration. (They defined millionaires as people with total net worth of $1 million or more, excluding primary residence).
(Read more: Rich Will Spend More Under Romney: Poll)
"It's true that Obama has been good for millionaires, at least in absolute terms," said Andrew Amoils, analyst at WealthInsight. "He certainly hasn't been bad for millionaires."
Amoils said that quantitative easing and financial bailouts especially helped the finance sector, which accounts for the largest share of millionaires. It also helped that markets recovered in 2009.
The timeframe is worth noting. Measured against the 2007 peak, when 5.27 million Americans had a net worth of at least $1 million, the nation lost 165,360 millionaires. Their combined wealth is down six percent, to $18.8 trillion from a peak of more than $20 trillion in 2007.
We don't know how 2012 will turn out, though if stock markets continue to strengthen, the millionaire count for 2012 is likely to increase. Wealth Insight says the number of millionaires in America will grow to more than six million by 2016, and their combined fortunes will jump 25 percent over the same period.
(Read more: Millionaires Give Nine Percent of Income to Charity)
Where did all the millionaires come from between 2008 and 2011?
Mainly from retail, tech and finance -- and in both blue and red states.
Of the sectors adding the largest number of people worth $30 million or more, the retail, fashion, and luxury goods sector ranked first. That was followed by energy and utilities, then tech, telecoms and finance. Transportation and construction saw the biggest drops.
The number of people worth $30 million or more grew 26 percent in Connecticut since 2008, 20 percent in Kansas, 12 percent in Michigan, showing that the wealth creation was nationwide.

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Obama Wins 2012 Election: Why Your Taxes Are Going Up

When President Obama and the new Congress begin to tackle important legislation and federal policy in January, one of the key issues will be how to reform America's byzantine tax code.
Obama campaigned on a platform to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, declaring that millionaires and billionaires need to "pay their fair share." The president proposed the highly controversial "Buffett Rule," which would make sure those individuals earning more than $1 million a year would pay at least 30% of their income in federal taxes.
Related: Do the Rich Have a Moral Obligation to Pay Higher Taxes? Gov. Jerry Brown Says 'Yes'
The top individual tax rate is currently 35% but few U.S. households and individuals actually pay that much; various tax deductions and loopholes reduce one's tax burden.
According to the Obama campaign, the richest 400 taxpayers in 2008 (who each made more than $110 million that year) paid an average income tax rate of just 18%. In 2009 over 20,000 U.S. households with more than $1 million in income paid a federal tax rate of less than 15%.
Obama has vowed to raise the top income tax rate for individuals to 39.6% and let the Bush-era tax breaks end for the highest income earners. The majority of Americans — those who are lower to middle class — could also see a 2% tax increase if Congress allows the temporary payroll tax holiday to expire at the end of the year.
Related: Here's Why Your Taxes Are Going Up 2% Next Year: Just Explain It
Nearly half of voters support raising taxes on incomes over $250,000, according to Tuesday night's exit polls.
Len Burman, a professor of public affairs at Syracuse University and a co-founder of the bipartisan Tax Policy Center, believes higher tax rates play just a small role in resolving the nation's budget woes.
"In the long term [Obama] is going to need to raise taxes on more than just the rich," Burman says in an interview with The Daily Ticker. "The budget problem isn't going to be solved without broader-based tax increases, preferably done in the context of tax reform and also serious entitlement reform. We're not going to be able to solve this on the tax side alone."
Burman, who recently co-wrote the new book "Taxes in America: What Everyone Needs to Know," says tax rates do not need to be raised for any income group if Congress and the White House would agree on one simple change: raising the capital gains rate, i.e. the profits from the sale of an investment. Assets, such as stocks, art or real estate, that are held for at least a year are currently taxed at a special 15% rate; Obama wants to raise that to 20%.
"The problem with a low tax rate on capital gains is not that it allows Mitt Romney and Warren Buffett to pay very low taxes but that it creates this huge opportunity for tax sheltering," he notes. "There's a whole industry that's devoted to coming up with these schemes. [Raising capital gains rates] could make the tax system more progressive and allow for lower tax rates" and a reduction in the deficit Burman says.
Obama's tax proposal also targets the Alternative Minimum Tax, the Estate Tax and as well as many personal tax credits and itemized deductions. Obama would make permanent the 2007 AMT patch and index it for inflation. He would raise the estate tax to 45% from 35% on estates worth more than $3.5 million. He would lower the corporate tax rate to 28% from 35% and provide a refundable $3,000 credit per added employee for companies that expand their workforce. He would tax carried interest as ordinary income.
Related: Corporate Tax Loopholes=Corporate Socialism: Pulitzer Prize Winner David Cay Johnston
A divided Congress refused to compromise with Obama during his first term and could very well dismiss the president's tax reforms for the next four years. Republicans are loathe to raise taxes by even a penny and Obama has said he would veto any budget bills that did not include tax increases. Neither party wants to raise taxes in a weak economy. But the options available for reducing the deficit and generating new revenue are few and far between.

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Wall Street sinks after election as "fiscal cliff" eyed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow industrials lost more than 300 points in a sell-off on Wednesday that drove all major stock indexes down over 2 percent in the wake of the presidential election as investors' focus shifted to the looming "fiscal cliff" debate and Europe's economic troubles.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index posted its biggest daily percentage drop since June, with all 10 S&P sectors solidly lower and about 80 percent of stocks on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq ending in negative territory. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 closed at their lowest levels since early August.
Financial stocks and energy shares, two sectors that could face increased regulation after President Barack Obama's re-election, were the weakest on the day. The S&P financial index (.GSPF) lost 3.5 percent, while the S&P energy index (REU:^GSPEI) fell 3.1 percent. An S&P index of technology shares (.GSPT) slid 2.8 percent as the stock of Apple Inc (AAPL) entered bear market territory.
Obama's victory had been anticipated, though many polls indicated a close race between the president and Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger, going into election day.
The election was considered a major source of uncertainty for the market, but now the focus turns to the fiscal cliff, with investors worrying that if no deal is reached over some $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases due to kick in early next year, it could derail the economic recovery.
The Republican Party retained control of the U.S. House of Representatives, while the Senate remained under Democratic control.
David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Boston, said this kind of divided government was disappointing "since that configuration has resulted in gridlock and there's no clear path towards unlocking that.
"It holds implications for how quickly we resolve the fiscal cliff issue, or whether it gets resolved at all," said Joy, who helps oversee $571 billion in assets.
The market's losses were broad, with pessimism exacerbated by overseas concerns after the European Commission said the region would barely grow next year, dashing hopes for improvement in the short term.
Still, some viewed the day's slide as a buying opportunity, saying it was unlikely that no deal would be reached on the fiscal cliff and arguing that Europe's troubles were already priced into markets.
"There's no question that Europe is lagging the rest of the developed and emerging world, but stocks will find a base soon, when investors start seeing through some of the smoke over the region and cliff," said Richard Weiss, who helps oversee about $120 billion in assets as a senior money manager at American Century Investments in Mountain View, California.
The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) slid 312.95 points, or 2.36 percent, to close at 12,932.73. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^GSPC) fell 33.86 points, or 2.37 percent, to 1,394.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC) lost 74.64 points, or 2.48 percent, to close at 2,937.29.
The S&P 500 closed below the key 1,400 level for the first time since August 30, while the Dow ended under 13,000 for the first time since August 2.
About 7.81 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, slightly below last year's daily average of 7.84 billion, though Wednesday's volume did surpass that of many recent sessions.
Contributing to the Nasdaq's decline, Apple shares fell 3.8 percent to $558, off 20.8 percent from an all-time intraday high of $705.07 set on September 21. That slump puts the stock of the world's most valuable publicly traded company in bear market territory.
Despite Wednesday's sell-off, all three major U.S. stock indexes were still up for the year. At Wednesday's close, the Dow was up 5.9 percent for 2012 so far, while the S&P 500 was up 10.9 percent and the Nasdaq was up 12.8 percent.
Wednesday's plunge was a reversal from Tuesday's rally when voting was under way. Defense and energy shares were among the market leaders that day, causing speculation that some investors were betting on a Romney win.
On Wednesday, an index of defense shares (.DFX) fell 2.9 percent, its biggest one-day drop in a year. Shares of United Technologies (UTX) dropped 2.9 percent to $77.68 while Lockheed Martin (LMT) sank 3.9 percent to $91.15.
Energy shares fell as investors bet that the industry may see increased regulation in Obama's second term, with less access to federal lands and water. Crude oil shed more than 4 percent while an index of coal companies (.DJUSCL) plunged 8.8 percent. Coal firms Peabody Energy (BTU) lost 9.6 percent to $26.24 and Arch Coal (ACI) sank 12.5 percent to $7.58.
Among financials, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) fell 5.6 percent to $40.46 and Goldman Sachs (GS) dropped 6.6 percent to $117.98.
"The notion that you may have gotten a respite on the financial services side (with regulation) if Romney had been elected is obviously being unwound," said Mike Ryan, chief investment strategist at UBS Wealth Management Americas in New York.
Healthcare stocks were mixed as President Obama's re-election rules out the possibility of a wholesale repeal of his healthcare reform law, though questions remain as to what parts of the domestic policy will be implemented. The S&P health care index (REU:^GSPAI) shed 1.9 percent. In contrast, Tenet Healthcare (THC) was the S&P 500's biggest percentage gainer, up 9.6 percent at $27.34.
In 2008, stocks also rallied on election day, but then fell by the largest margin on record for a day following the vote, with each of the three major U.S. stock indexes posting losses ranging from 5 percent to 5.5 percent.
After the bell, both Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) and Whole Foods Market Inc (WFM) reported results. Qualcom's revenue beat expectations, sending shares up 8 percent to $62.75 in extended trading, while Whole Foods dropped 3.3 percent to $92.75 after the bell. In the regular session, Qualcomm slid 3.7 percent to close at $58.12, while Whole Foods dropped 2.1 percent to $95.93.

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Soccer-Coach Fernandez leaves bottom club Nancy

PARIS, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Coach Jean Fernandez has left Ligue 1 basement side Nancy after 18 months in charge, the French club said on Friday.
"On Thursday, Jean Fernandez told the players and the management he was leaving the club," Nancy said on their website (www.asnl.net).
The club's academy director, Patrick Gabriel, would serve as interim coach for Saturday's home league game against Lille, they said.
The 58-year-old Fernandez, a former Marseille coach, joined Nancy in June 2011 from Auxerre, a club he managed to qualify for the Champions League group stage in 2010-11 despite modest resources. His success brought him the award for best coach in 2010.
Nancy, who have won only their league opener this term, are on 11 points from 19 games, eight points from safety.
The club have also been experiencing financial troubles and said they were willing to get rid of up to five players in order to cut their deficit.

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Soccer-Aguero's comeback still a week away, says Mancini

LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero will miss Sunday's match against Arsenal and faces another week on the sidelines with a hamstring injury, manager Roberto Mancini said on Friday.
The 24-year-old Argentine, who is City's joint top-scorer this season with 10 goals, picked up the injury in City's 3-0 win over Stoke City on New Year's Day and was forced to sit out their FA Cup victory over Watford last weekend.
"Sergio won't be available for at least another week," Mancini told reporters.
"He should make the game against Fulham but we won't risk him against Arsenal. He should be ready by next weekend."
Premier League champions City, who will be able to call on left back Aleksandar Kolarov after a four-week injury absence, have not won at Arsenal in 37 years.
"We want to end this run but it will be very difficult because Arsenal are a very good team," Mancini said.
"We are missing a number of important players but we can go there and come away with a good result. We are seven points behind United at present but I don't feel we deserve to be so many points behind.
"Our strikers have been coming back into form again and scoring goals and we will need them to keep doing that. Sometimes you go through a period when you don't score so many but we have scored 10 in our last three games so things are improving.

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Soccer-Milito could return for Inter after injury

ROME, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Diego Milito could return for Inter Milan as they look to get their Italian title challenge back on track against struggling Pescara on Saturday (1945 GMT).
The Argentine striker missed Inter's 3-1 defeat at Udinese last week due to a knee injury but manager Andrea Stramaccioni said on Friday that he was well again.
"Milito has recovered; he has a small problem with his knee that causes him a bit pain but isn't a serious medical problem," said the Inter coach at Friday's pre-match news conference.
Inter are fifth in Serie A on 35 points, nine behind leaders Juventus, after picking up one point in their last three games.

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Soccer-Wenger optimistic over Walcott's Arsenal future

LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger said he was "optimistic" that England international Theo Walcott will commit his long-term future to the London club and sign a new deal.
Barely a week goes by without the Frenchman being asked whether progress has been made on persuading top scorer Walcott to stay at the Emirates Stadium.
Walcott, who has hit eight Premier League goals this campaign, is out of contract at the end of the season,
"Discussions progress smoothly but slowly. We are on a good road but in this situation, as long as nothing is signed, you are cautious," Wenger told a news conference on Friday.
"But I am optimistic we will get to a happy conclusion. I was optimistic last week, but I am a bit more optimistic this week."
Walcott has made no secret of his desire to switch from the wing to play in the centre forward role and has revelled in that position in recent games, including netting a dazzling hat-trick in the 7-3 win over Newcastle United in late December.
Wenger said any new deal would not revolve around Walcott being assured of playing as a central striker, although he did envisage him getting more time in that role.
"No, it is not linked with that," he said. "I believe that Theo can have a preference maybe to play through the middle but first of all he never made a condition of that to extend his contract, because certainly I would not accept it.
"Secondly he was always happier when he plays, whether it is on the flank or through the middle. That has no influence at all. But I see him playing more up front, yes."
Arsenal host second-placed Manchester City on Sunday (1600) with striker Olivier Giroud rated as "50-50" to play by Wenger after suffering a cut knee in the FA Cup tie with Swansea last weekend.
Sixth-placed Arsenal are unbeaten in five league games but Wenger said his side needed "another positive result in a big game" to maintain pursuit of the clubs above them.
"We know this a vital period for us," he said. "We are on a positive run. We still lack a bit of confidence in some situations and I feel our team will be very dangerous if we have full confidence.

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"GameStick" Will Be the Size of a USB Memory Stick, Plug into Your TV

When the Ouya game console (scheduled to launch in April) made headlines last year, it was for three reasons. One, its size and price -- the $99 box, which plugs into a TV, is the size of a Rubik's cube. Two, its choice of operating system -- it runs the same Android OS which powers smartphones and tablets. And three -- its rise to fame on Kickstarter, where it shattered records and received millions of dollars in funding not from venture capitalists, but from gamers who wanted to see it made.
Now GameStick, "The Most Portable TV Games Console Ever Created," is preparing to make a name for itself in exactly the same ways. Except that in some of them, it surpasses the Ouya.
Not even a set-top box
Up to this point, pretty much all home game consoles have been a box that sits on your shelf and plugs in to your TV. (Some PCs even do this these days.)
The GameStick, on the other hand, is about the size of a USB memory stick or a tube of lip balm. It plugs into a TV's HDMI port, and connects to a wireless controller (or even a mouse and keyboard) via Bluetooth. It "works with any Bluetooth controller supporting HID," and will come with its own small gamepad, which features twin analog sticks and a slot to put the GameStick itself inside when not in use.
Do we know if it works yet?
GameStick's creators showed off pictures of a nonworking "Mark 1 Prototype Model," and posted video of a "Reference Board" actually playing games while plugged into a television. This was a roughly USB-stick-sized circuit board, which lacked an outer case.
The reference unit had wires coming out of it, but the GameStick FAQ explains that on new, "MHL compliant TVs" it can draw power straight from the HDMI port, in much the same way that many USB devices are powered by a USB connection. A USB connector cable will be supplied with GameStick just in case, and "there will also be a power adapter."
What about the games?
The GameStick reference unit was playing an Android game called Shadowgun, an over-the-shoulder third-person shooter which is considered technically demanding by Android device standards.
GameStick's creators say "We have some great games lined up already," and AFP Relax confirms that it has roughly the same internal specs as the Ouya, plus a lineup at launch of about a dozen games including several AAA Android titles.
How much will it cost, and when will it be out?
GameStick is available for preorder now from its Kickstarter page for $79. (The price includes the controller as well.) It has an estimated delivery date of April if the project is fully funded -- and with 28 days to go, it had more than reached its $100,000 goal.
Jared Spurbeck is an open-source software enthusiast, who uses an Android phone and an Ubuntu laptop PC. He has been writing about technology and electronics since 2008.

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5 Predictions for Mobile Tech in 2013

If denial isn't just a river in Egypt, then mobile isn't just a city in Alabama. And if 2012 proved one thing, it's that there's no denying mobile is the present and future of technology.
Sales figures for mobile devices reached new heights in 2012. Market research firm Gartner predicted tablet sales would near 120 million, about doubling the total sold in 2011.
[More from Mashable: Would You Make Your Kid Sign a Contract to Use an iPhone?]
In addition, the number of active smartphones eclipsed 1 billion during the past year. That's one for every seven people on the planet. And while it took almost two decades to reach 1 billion active smartphones, research firm Strategy Analytics projects there will be 2 billion by 2015, fueled by growth in developing economies in China, India and Africa.
It's not just phones and tablets though. All sorts of smart mobile technology flourished in 2012, from watches and wristbands to glasses that can project video on the inside of the lenses. Speaking of glasses, in April, Google sent the tech world into a tizzy when it unveiled plans for a futuristic headset called Project Glass.
[More from Mashable: ‘Offensive Combat’ Brings Hardcore Gaming to Facebook]
Well, if you think mobile came a long way in 2012, this year could be even better. Here's an outline of where we think mobile technology is headed in 2013.
Brand Wars Will Drive Innovation
In terms of smartphones, mobile in 2013 will be like an evening of boxing. For the main event, heavyweights Apple and Samsung will square off to see which can produce the world's most popular device.
The Samsung Galaxy III recently dethroned the iPhone for that honor. While Apple went conservative with new features on the iPhone 5, Samsung went bold, equipping the Galaxy S III with an enormous 4.8-inch display, near field communication (NFC) technology (more on this later), a burst-shooting camera and a voice-enabled assistent akin to the iPhone's Siri.
Apparently, Apple is preparing to counter-punch. There are already rumors that Apple is testing its next iPhone, identified as "iPhone 6.1" which runs iOS 7.
Behind the iPhone and Galaxy a host of capable contenders are hungry for a shot at the belt, including devices from Motorola, HTC and Nokia.
There might even be some new players in the game. It seems likely that Amazon will debut a Kindle Phone sometime in 2013. There was even talk that Facebook was working on its own smartphone, but CEO and founder Mark Zuckerberg squelched those rumors in September.
What does this all this mean for us? It means better phones. Competition drives innovation. Look for these brands to consistently try to one-up one another with faster processors, better cameras and more innovative features.
That's not the only battle that will play out in 2013. Another one to watch will be the fight for third place in mobile operating systems. Android is the undisputed number one with nearly 75% global market share. While Apple's iOS is miles behind Android, it is still firmly entrenched at number two.
In 2013, the top two contenders for third place will be Windows Phone 8 and BlackBerry 10, which is expected to launch in the coming months.
A few dark horses are running in this race for third. Mozilla plans to launch a Firefox OS sometime during 2013. Then, there is Tizen, a Linux-based mobile OS. Samsung recently revealed plans to release Tizen-based devices in 2013.
Both Firefox and Tizen are open source mobile operating systems, but they won't be the only ones. There are two other open source mobile operating systems to watch going forward. Jolla expects to release smartphones and possibly tablets running its Sailfish OS in 2013; and Ubuntu-based smartphones should hit the market by early 2014.
No NFC Mobile Payment, Yet
Before leaving the house, most will check to make sure they have three things: keys, wallet and cellphone. Well, thanks to NFC technology, cellphones might soon lighten the load by essentially replacing wallets with an "e-wallet."
It seems like we have been talking about NFC for years now. Basically, it enables two devices to make a very short-range and secure connection through radio technology. If a smartphone is equipped with NFC, as are most newer-model Androids, and if a retailer has an NFC terminal, one could make a purchase by simply tapping the phone on the terminal.
NFC technology also has other applications, such as data transfer between phones, but mobile payments is the feature most often discussed.
Services like Isis and Google Wallet are already in place. They secure one's payment information within a device.
The reason why mobile payment through NFC has not yet hit the mainstream is that device penetration is not at the point where it has prompted retailers to update their technology. Basically, not enough smartphones have the technology. Androids have started to adapt, but unlike iPhones, Android hardware is not uniform across the various devices.
While the wheels have been in motion for some time, they're really spinning now that most new Androids, including the Galaxy S III, come with NFC. If Apple releases a new iPhone during 2013, and if Apple decides to include NFC this time around, it will probably tip the scales in favor of rapid adoption of mobile payment.
Even if all that does happen, however, there probably won't be a new iPhone until later in the year, so odds are you're not going to see NFC penetrate the mainstream during 2013. Maybe 2014 will finally be the year of NFC.
Flexible Smartphones
Here's something you never knew you needed -- a flexible smartphone. These devices will be lighter, more durable and the screen will be bendable. This feat is possible by making the display out of an organic light-emitting diode (OLED) and shielding it in plastic rather than glass. Samsung is reportedly moving forward with plans to start producing a bendable phone.
Samsung is not the only player in this game, however. Many companies are developing bendable screens. At Nokia World in London in 2011, Nokia showed off a device which not only bends but is controlled by bending. Check it out in the video below.

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Baby Bones Found Scattered in Ancient Italian Village

SEATTLE — The death of an infant may not have been an occasion for mourning in ancient Italy, according to archaeologists who have found baby bones scattered on the floor of a workshop dating to the seventh century B.C.
The grisly finds consist of bone fragments uncovered over years of excavation at Poggio Civitate, a settlement about 15 miles (25 kilometers) from the city of Siena in what is now Tuscany. The settlement dates back to at least the late eighth century B.C. Archaeologists excavating the site have found evidence of a lavish residential structure as well as an open-air pavilion that stretches an amazing 170 feet (52 meters) long. Residents used this pavilion was as a workshop, manufacturing goods such as terracotta roof tiles.
In 1983, scientists uncovered a cache of bones on the workshop floor, consisting mostly of pig, goat and sheep remains. But among the bony debris was a more sobering find: two arm bones from an infant (or infants) who died right around birth.
In 2009, another baby bone surfaced at the workshop, this one a portion of the pelvis of a newborn. [See Images of the Infant Bones]
The bones "were either simply left on the floor of the workshop or ended up in an area with a concentration of discarded, butchered animals," said Anthony Tuck, an archaeologist at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who presented an analysis of the bones Friday (Jan. 4) at the annual meeting of the Archaeological Institute of America.
Abandoned bones
The discovery of the discarded infant bones in an area used for work could suggest that the people who labored in the workshop had little social status, Tuck said. They may have been slaves or servants whose lost infants would garner little sympathy from the community at large.
However, a third find complicates the picture. In 1971, archaeologists found an arm bone from another newborn or near-term fetus pushed up against the wall of the lavish residence along with other bones and debris. It seems as if someone swept the debris up against the wall, not differentiating between baby bones and garbage, Tuck said. [8 Grisly Archaeological Discoveries]
There's no way to know whose infant came to rest up against the wall of a wealthy person's home, said Tuck, who plans to submit the findings to the journal Etruscan Studies. Perhaps the infant belonged to a desperate servant, or perhaps to a member of the family. If so, it may be that even high-status families didn't consider babies worth mourning when they died in infancy.
The possibility can sound horrifying to modern ears, Tuck said.
"This kind of new data makes people a bit uncomfortable," he told LiveScience. "People have a tendency to romanticize the past, especially in a place like Tuscany. When we have direct evidence for this kind of behavior, it can be a little tricky to present."
Death in infancy
Nevertheless, Tuck said, there is reason to think that people have not always given infants the same community status as adults or older children. However, baby bones tend not to preserve well, which makes it difficult to know how ancient Italians in Tuscany treated their deceased infants.
Very few signs of infant burial appear in central Italian cemeteries from this time period, though, Tuck said. The handful of coffins containing baby bones that have been found are loaded with ornaments and jewelry, suggesting that only families of great wealth could have given a lost baby an adult-style funeral.
Even in modern times, societies have sometimes seen babies as belonging to a different category than adults, Tuck said. In areas of extreme poverty and stress that have high infant mortality, the death of a newborn may not trigger many outward displays of mourning, he said.
And many cultures have naming traditions that only recognize the baby's identity significantly after birth. For example, in traditional Jewish culture, a baby boy's name isn't revealed outside the family until the bris, or the ritual of circumcision eight days after birth. According to superstition, naming the baby before then would attract the attention of the Angel of Death.
The Maasai people of Africa give their newborns temporary names until a ceremony as late as age 3, in which the child receives a new name and has his or her head shaved to symbolize a fresh start in life.
On the other hand, not all ancient cultures differentiate between the burials of babies and adults. Stone Age infant graves found in Austria in 2006 date back to 27,000 years ago and contain the same beads and pigments as adult gravesites.
The people who lived in Poggio Civitate more than 2,000 years ago have left little evidence of how they viewed infants, but Tuck and his colleagues expect more finds to emerge as the researchers continue to dig in the Tuscany hills. More evidence that high- and low-class babies were buried differently would suggest that the civilization had a rigid hierarchy, they said.
Images of more than 25,000 objects recovered from the site can be found at Open Context, an open-source research database developed by the Alexandra Archive Institute.

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The 'Brotherhoodization' of Egypt and its unions

Issandr El Amrani, the main writer behind The Arabist, has been posting occasional links and thoughts on the Brotherhoodization of Egyptian institutions, real and imagined, since the election of the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi as president.
A few days ago he pointed to the failure of Egypt's new constitution to devolve powers from Egypt's traditionally strong central state to the provinces and the power that gives to President Morsi and his appointees to control politics at the local level. In Egypt's recent cabinet reshuffle what caught his eye in particular was the appointment of Brotherhood stalwart Mohamed Beshir as minister of local development, since he was given an expanded role in selecting governors, who are appointed, not elected, in Egypt. An article in Al-Masry Al-Youm ("Egypt Today") says Beshir's ministry is currently planning on changing eight Egyptian governors, with the new officials coming from the ranks of the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and Salafi Al Nour Party.
"This is probably a more significant move than the cabinet shuffle. Governors have tremendous powers in Egypt, particularly ahead of an election. That all come from politics — the FJP and Nour parties — rather than the senior civil service, police, universities etc. as was the case under Mubarak is a striking change. It will certainly fuel the accusations of "Brotherhoodization" of the state, this time with some merit. Constitutionally, President Morsi has the right to appoint governors or delegate that privilege. It's one of the many shames of the new constitution it does not include mechanisms for direct election of governors and the empowerment of local government."
Today he flags a new piece by Joel Beinin, a historian of Egyptian labor and industrialization at Stanford University, which reinforces the sense that Morsi and the leaders of the Brotherhood are seeking to adapt the institutions and methods of Mubarak's Egypt to their own rule, rather than fundamentally change the top-down way the country has almost always been governed.
Beinin writes that on Nov. 25, Morsi issued a presidential decree on labor unions that received scant attention in the press, coming as it did on the heels of a decree that issued him broad powers designed to help him rush through Egypt's new constitution. That earlier decree sparked clashes and a political stand-off that ended in a Brotherhood victory when the constitution was passed. But Decree 97 of 2012 could have far reaching implications for how Egypt is governed going forward.
The decree governs how the leaders of Egypt's state-controlled Egyptian Federation of Trade Unions (ETUF) will be chosen, and could lead to Brotherhood packing the government-sponsored sub-unions with their own men.
"The decree also authorizes Minister of Manpower and Migration Khalid al-Azhari of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party to appoint replacements to vacant trade union offices if no second-place candidate exists. State security officials banned thousands of opposition trade unionists from running in 2006, so hundreds of candidates ran unopposed. Thus, as many as 150 Muslim Brothers could be appointed to posts in ETUF’s 24 national sector unions, while 14 of 24 executive board members will be sacked," Beinin writes.
He continues:
Decree 97 also extends the terms of incumbent union office-holders for six months or until the next ETUF elections (whichever comes first). Muslim Brothers and ETUF old guard figures will supervise those elections and likely confirm their joint control over the organization. This is characteristic of the Muslim Brotherhood’s recent political practice. Rather than reform institutions and power centers of the Mubarak regime, it has sought to extend its control over them. But as in other spheres, they do not have a concrete program or enough trained personnel to manage ETUF. Therefore, they are dividing control of the organization with Mubarak era figures. Their common interest is first and foremost bureaucratic—to maintain their positions. The Brothers also seek to limit the extent of independent trade unionism, as it constitutes a potential opposition to their free market ideology.
That last sentence is worth emphasizing, since it's a point often missed about the Brothers in the West. The movement's economic ideology is largely free market capitalist, and strong independent trade unionism as about the furthest thing from the minds of the movement's leaders.
Beinin points out there were 3,150 strikes and other workers actions in the first eight months of last year, and with Egypt currently negotiating an austerity program in exchange for a $4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund, the chance for more unemployment and labor unrest is high.
In hindsight, an unprecedented wave of wildcat strikes across Egypt that started in the middle of the last decade helped set the stage for the uprising against Hosni Mubarak in 2011. While it looks clear that the new government, just like the old one, will seek to push labor organization into easily controlled government proxies, stuffing the genie back into the bottle may prove difficult.
In 2007, I quoted American University in Cairo Political Science Professor Mohammed Kamel al-Sayyid in a piece on the then-blossoming strike wave, which was being fueled by IMF-urged policies that had sped up economic growth, but left wages stagnant and unemployment high.
Mohammed Kamel al-Sayyid, a political science professor at the American University in Cairo, says the country's labor unrest could, over the long term, prove one of the greatest threats to the stability of the system, as a generation of Egyptians brought up to count on government jobs for life confront a new reality.
"This unprecedented wave of worker strikes certainly seems connected to the government's liberalization policies," he says. "I'm not saying there's going to be a revolution, but there's this ongoing process of deterioration in public trust. How many cops do you have to put on the streets to counter all this public frustration?"
Those risks, clearly, remain today. And now it is Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood's problem.

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Japan to boost military budget amid regional tensions

Japan's Defense Ministry will request a second boost to its military budget, according to reports, just a day after the government announced the first Defense budget increase in 10 years. The boosts, although relatively modest compared with Japan's overall defense spending, coincide with increasing tensions in the Asia Pacific region.
Japan's Defense Ministry intends to ask for 180.5 billion yen ($2.1 billion) from a government stimulus package – on top of an increase of more than 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) to its military budget announced earlier this week – in order to upgrade its air defenses, according to the BBC.
"We will request 180.5bn yen to be allocated to military spending from a stimulus package," a defence ministry spokesman told Agence-France Presse news agency.
He said that part of it would fund the purchase of PAC-3 surface-to-air anti-ballistic missile systems and modernise four F-15 fighter jets.
The defence ministry spokesman said the funds were needed "to prepare for the changing security environment surrounding Japan".
The budgetary shifts are relatively modest – both increases are dwarfed by the government's 4.65 trillion yen ($53 billion) defense budget – but are still noteworthy as a reverse course from the past decade, which has seen a steady decrease in Japan's defense spending, notes the BBC.
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Kazuhiko Togo, director at the Institute for World Affairs of Kyoto Sangyo University, told Agence France-Presse that the military budget increases were the direct result of tensions over a set of islands – known as Senkaku to the Japanese and Daiyou to the Chinese – claimed both by Tokyo and Beijing. The islands have been at the root of increasingly testy relations between the two countries, as they sit amid a region of the East China Sea believed to be home to large oil and natural gas deposits that both nations covet.
“China has publicly said it would seize the islands by force if necessary and acted as such. To avoid a possible armed clash, Japan has no choice but to possess deterrence by boosting its defence budget,” he said.
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The Yomiuri Shimbun reports that the budgetary increase is needed to fund upgrades to materiel, as much of the budget is dedicated to salaries and food for personnel. "Continued decreases in defense spending [as in years past] would make it difficult for the SDF [Self-Defense Forces] to procure aircraft, vessels and other necessary equipment," it reports.
Bloomberg Business Week reports that according to documents distributed by the Defense Ministry, Japan also plans to use the budget increase to upgrade several F-15 fighters and purchase more missile interceptors.
The budgetary increases may also go toward exploring a drone program in Japan. The Guardian reports that China has been expanding its drone capabilities in recent months, nominally for surveillance, though experts warn future drone skirmishes with Japan are a strong possibility.
China unveiled eight new models [of domestically developed drones] in November at an annual air show on the southern coastal city Zhuhai, photographs of which appeared prominently in the state-owned press. Yet the images may better indicate China's ambitions than its abilities, according to Chang: "We've seen these planes on the ground only — if they work or not, that's difficult to explain."
Japanese media reports said the defence ministry hopes to introduce Global Hawk unmanned aircraft near the disputed islands by 2015 at the earliest in an attempt to counter Beijing's increasingly assertive naval activity in the area. ...
The Kyodo news agency quoted an unnamed defence ministry official as saying the drones would be used "to counter China's growing assertiveness at sea, especially when it comes to the Senkaku islands".

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Freed Iranians arrive in Damascus after prisoner swap

DAMASCUS/ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Forty-eight Iranians freed by Syrian rebels in exchange for more than 2,000 civilian prisoners held by the Syrian government arrived in central Damascus on Wednesday, a Reuters witness reported.
The Syrian government has not referred to the prisoner swap and the whereabouts of the civilian prisoners was not immediately known.
Opposition groups accuse it of detaining tens of thousands of political prisoners during his 12 years in office and say those numbers have spiked sharply during the 21-month-old civil war.
The Syrian rebel al-Baraa brigade seized the Iranians in early August and initially threatened to kill them, saying they were members of Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sent to fight for President Bashar al-Assad.
The Islamic Republic, one of his staunchest allies, denied this, saying they were Shi'ite Muslim pilgrims visiting shrines, and it asked Turkey and Qatar to use their connections with Syrian insurgents to help secure their release.
The freed Iranians arrived at a Damascus hotel in six small buses, looking tired but in good health, each carrying a white flower, and they were welcomed by Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani. They did not speak to reporters.
Bulent Yildirim, head of the Turkish humanitarian aid agency IHH which helped broker the deal, told Reuters by telephone from Damascus shortly beforehand that the reciprocal release of 2,130 civilian prisoners - most of them Syrian but also including Turks and other foreign citizens - had begun.
Syrian government forces have struck local deals with rebel groups to trade prisoners but the release announced on Wednesday was the first time non-Syrians were freed in an exchange.
The Damascus government has periodically freed hundreds of prisoners during the conflict but always stressed such detainees "do not have blood on their hands."
Given the number of political prisoners held during the course of Assad's rule, missing persons became a key issue when street protests against him first erupted in March 2011.
Turkey is one of Assad's fiercest critics, a strong backer of his opponents and proponent of international intervention. It has denounced Iran's stance during the Syrian uprising, which has killed around 60,000 people according to a U.N. estimate.
Turkey, Gulf Arab states, the United States and European allies support the mainly Sunni Muslim Syrian rebels, while Shi'ite Iran supports Assad, whose Alawite minority is an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam.
A pro-government newspaper said on December 31 that Syrian forces arrested four Turkish fighter pilots who were trying to sneak into a military airport with an armed group in the northern province of Aleppo.
The Damascus-based al-Watan newspaper said the arrests at the Koers military base, 24 km (15 miles) east of Aleppo city, proved "scandalous Turkish involvement" in Syria's crisis.
TURKEY, QATAR INTERVENE
The al-Baraa brigade, part of the umbrella rebel organization, the Free Syrian Army, said in October it would start killing the Iranians unless Assad freed Syrian opposition detainees and stopped shelling civilian areas.
But Qatar, following a request from Iran, urged the rebels not to carry out the threat.
Insurgents fighting to topple Assad accuse Iran of sending fighters from the Revolutionary Guards to help his forces crush the revolt, a charge the Islamic Republic denies.
The rebels now control wide areas of northern and eastern Syria, most of its border crossings with Turkey and a crescent of suburbs around the capital Damascus.
But Assad's government is still firmly entrenched in the capital and controls most of the densely populated southwest, the Mediterranean coast and the main north-south highway.
The IHH has been involved in previous negotiations in recent months to release prisoners, including two Turkish journalists and Syrian citizens, held in Syria.
The humanitarian group came to prominence in May 2010 when Israeli marines stormed its Mavi Marmara aid ship to enforce a naval blockade of the Palestinian-run Gaza Strip and killed nine Turks in clashes with activists on board.

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Lance Armstrong may admit he used banned drugs: NY Times

(Reuters) - Lance Armstrong, the American cyclist at the center of the biggest doping scandal in the sport's history, may admit he used performance-enhancing drugs during his career, the New York Times reported in Saturday's editions, citing unidentified sources.
Such an admission would be a stunning reversal for Armstrong, who has vehemently denied doping for years.
The Times reported that Armstrong, 41, has told associates and anti-doping officials he may make the admission in hopes of persuading anti-doping officials to allow him to resume competition in athletic events that adhere to the World Anti-Doping Code, under which Armstrong is currently subject to a lifetime ban.
Asked if Armstrong might admit to doping, Armstrong's lawyer Tim Herman told the Times: "Lance has to speak for himself on that."
The newspaper, citing an unidentified person briefed on the situation, said Armstrong has been in discussions with the United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) and met with Travis Tygart, the agency's chief executive.
The paper, citing the same source, said Armstrong is also seeking to meet with David Howman, the director general of the World Anti-Doping Agency.
Armstrong's lawyer denied his client had talked with Tygart, according to the Times.
Howman said in a statement the agency had read "with interest" media accounts of Armstrong's possible intention to confess.
"To date, WADA has had no official approach from Mr. Armstrong or his legal representatives, but - as with anyone involved in anti-doping violations - it would welcome any discussion that helps in the fight against doping in sport," Howman said.
A spokeswoman for the USADA declined to comment.
An October 10 report from the USADA citied Armstrong's involvement in what it characterized as the "most sophisticated, professionalized and successful doping program that sport has ever seen," involving anabolic steroids, human growth hormone, blood transfusions and other doping.
Less than two weeks later, Armstrong's seven Tour de France victories were nullified and he was banned from cycling for life after the International Cycling Union ratified the USADA's sanctions against him.
Wealthy supporters of Livestrong, the charity Armstrong helped found, have been seeking to convince Armstrong to come forward to clear his conscience and spare the organization from further damage, the Times reported, citing a person with knowledge of the situation.
But an official with Livestrong said the group was unaware of any pressure on Armstrong by organization donors to admit anything, and declined to comment further.
Calls to Armstrong's attorney and Capital Sports & Entertainment, which represents Armstrong, were not returned on Saturday.
Austin, Texas-based Livestrong was launched in 2003 by the Lance Armstrong Foundation, which the cyclist founded in 1997, a year after he was diagnosed with testicular cancer. In October, he stepped down from his post as chairman of the board, saying he did not want the doping controversy to affect the organization. A few weeks later, he quit the board outright.
World Anti-Doping rules permit under certain circumstances penalties for admitted dopers to be reduced.

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Confess? Armstrong may not have much to gain

Associated Press

Lance Armstrong may be considering a change in course, dropping his years of denials and admitting that he used performance-enhancing drugs — though whether such a move would help him is uncertain.

The New York Times, citing anonymous sources, reported late Friday that Armstrong has told associates he is thinking about the move.

However, Armstrong attorney Tim Herman says that the cyclist hasn’t reached out to USADA chief executive Travis Tygart and David Howman, director general of the World Anti-Doping Agency.

A USADA spokeswoman declined comment on Saturday, while Howman was quoted by the Sunday Star-Times in New Zealand, where he is vacationing, saying Armstrong has not approached his group.

USADA stripped Armstrong of his seven Tour de France titles last year and issued a report portraying the cyclist as the leader of a sophisticated doping operation on his winning teams.

Public confessions and apologies have been the route of redemption for several athletes who have gotten in trouble.

For example, Tiger Woods said he was sorry for cheating on his wife in televised speech, and baseball slugger Mark McGwire eventually admitted to steroid use. Yet Armstrong faces serious legal entanglements those megastars didn’t, and a confession to doping could end up complicating matters for Armstrong — not making them easier.

The U.S. Department of Justice is considering whether to join a federal whistle-blower lawsuit filed by former Armstrong teammate Floyd Landis alleging fraud against the U.S. Postal Service during the years the agency sponsored Armstrong’s teams.

A Dallas-based promotions company has also said it wants to recover several million dollars paid to Armstrong in bonuses for winning the Tour de France. And the British newspaper The Sunday Times is suing to recover about $500,000 paid to Armstrong to settle a libel lawsuit.

Armstrong has testified under oath that he never used performance-enhancing drugs, which could theoretically lead to charges if he confessed. Former U.S. track star Marion Jones spent several months in federal prison for lying to investigators about her drug use.

And after so many years of vehement denials and sworn statements that he never doped, at this point, what would Armstrong gain from a confession? There would be no guarantee that his personal sponsors would return or that the public would accept it.

Is the public even interested in an Amrstrong confession?

Gene Grabowski, executive vice president of Levick, a Washington, D.C.-based crisis and issues management firm, said “it may be too little, too late because he’s been denying it for so long.”

A confession would only work to salvage Armstrong’s reputation if he accepted full responsibility and blamed no one else, Grabowski said. And it would have to include some public act of atonement.

“If he does all three, he has a shot,” Grabowski said. “You have to show people you are willing to pay a price.”

The New York Times reported the 41-year-old Armstrong may be considering a confession in an attempt to reduce his lifetime ban from cycling and Olympic sport so he can return to competing in triathlons and elite running events.

Armstrong lost most of his personal sponsorship worth tens of millions of dollars after USADA issued its report and he left the board of the Livestrong cancer-fighting charity he founded in 1997. He is still worth about a reported $100 million.

Livestrong might be one reason to issue an apology. The charity supports cancer patients and still faces an image problem because of its association with its famous founder.

And if Armstrong did confess, the corporate sponsors who abandoned him might support him again, Grabowski said.

“They’ll do what the public does,” Grabowski said.

Betsy Andreu, the wife of former Armstrong teammate Frankie Andreu, was one of the first to publicly accuse Armstrong of using performance-enhancing drugs.

She dismissed a potential confession from Armstrong as self-serving and too late.

“Sorry, your chance is over. You’re banned for life. It’s not with an asterisk, that because you are Lance Armstrong you get to come back,” Andreu said. “He does not belong in sport.

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Golf-McIlroy breaks with first sponsor, Nike waits in wings

LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - World number one golfer Rory McIlroy has parted company with his first corporate sponsor ahead of confirmation of a deal that will make him the new face of sportswear giant Nike.
U.S. PGA champion McIlroy is poised to rubber-stamp a 10-year deal with U.S. company Nike worth as much as $250 million, according to media reports.
Nike is set to supply the 23-year-old Northern Irishman's clubs and have its name or logo on his clothing in an exclusive deal.
The Dubai-based hotel company Jumeirah Group said on Tuesday that its five-year sponsorship with 2011 U.S. Open champion McIlroy had ended.
"Jumeirah became my first corporate sponsor when I turned professional back in 2007 and I would like to thank everyone at the company for their support in helping me become the player I am today," McIlroy said in a news release.
The player, who topped the money-lists on both sides of the Atlantic last year, said in November he did not think that ditching the Titleist clubs that have taken him to the top of the sport would affect his game.
Nike is hoping a partnership with the clean-cut McIlroy will help it to move on after it dropped disgraced cyclist Lance Armstrong last year over his doping scandal.
The company stuck with former world number one golfer Tiger Woods despite the bad publicity the American suffered when a series of extra-marital affairs were exposed in 2009.

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H&R Block 2Q loss narrows as revenue rises

 H&R Block's fiscal second-quarter loss narrowed, helped by cost-cutting efforts. Revenue climbed mostly because of a strong tax season in Australia.
The nation's largest tax preparation company typically turns in a loss in the August-to-October period because it takes in most of its revenue during the U.S. tax season. H&R Block's quarterly performance beat analysts' estimates and its stock hit the highest level in more than two years.
The company is optimistic and gearing up for its busy season.
"The U.S. tax season is right around the corner and we believe we're on pace to deliver significant earnings and margin expansion in fiscal 2013," President and CEO Bill Cobb said in a statement on Thursday.
For the three months ended Oct. 31, H&R Block Inc. lost $105.2 million, or 39 cents per share. A year earlier it lost $141.7 million, or 47 cents per share, for the quarter.
Its loss from continuing operations was 37 cents per share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected a bigger loss of 41 cents per share.
Selling, general and administrative expenses declined and the quarter was free of any impairment charges. The prior-year period included a $4.3 million impairment charge.
Revenue rose 6 percent to $137.3 million from $129.2 million. This topped Wall Street's forecast of $129.6 million.
Shares of H&R Block gained 89 cents, or 5.1 percent, to close at $18.26. Earlier in the session the stock reached $18.40, its highest point since May 2010.
Tax services revenue increased 7 percent primarily due to the strong Australian tax season. Corporate revenue fell because of lower interest income from H&R Block Bank's shrinking mortgage loan portfolio.
H&R Block disclosed in October that it hired Goldman Sachs to help it explore options for its banking arm, H&R Block Bank. Those options, Block said, could result in the company no longer being regulated as a savings and loan holding company by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve announced some proposed rules in June that would impose higher capital requirements on savings and loan holding companies. H&R Block contends that if the proposed rules are enacted it would have to hold on to significant additional capital.
H&R Block, based in Kansas City, Mo., prepared 25.6 million tax returns worldwide in fiscal 2012.

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Oregon governor says Nike plans to hire thousands

SALEM, Ore. (AP) — Sporting goods giant Nike plans to expand its operations in Oregon and hire as many as 12,000 new workers by 2020 but wants the government to promise it won't change the state tax code, prompting a special session of the Legislature.
Gov. John Kitzhaber said he'll call lawmakers together Friday in Salem to create a new law authorizing him to grant Nike's wish.
The governor did not release information about the company's expansion plans but the $440 million project would create 2,900 construction jobs with an annual economic impact of $2 billion a year.
Nike Inc. has its headquarters in Beaverton. Company officials could not immediately be reached.
The Legislature is due to meet in its regular annual session beginning Jan. 14, but Kitzhaber said Nike needed certainty sooner. The company was being wooed by other states, he said.
"Getting Oregonians back to work is my top priority," Kitzhaber said in a news conference.
Either the governor or the Legislature itself can call lawmakers into session at times other than the state Constitution specifies.
For much of the state's history, the Legislature's regular sessions have been held every other year, at the beginning of odd-numbered years. That's the kind of session the Legislature is scheduled to begin early next year.
In recent years, the Legislature has moved to meet annually, running test sessions of briefer sessions in even-numbered years. Those led to voter approval of a constitutional amendment in 2010 that called for annual sessions.
Records list 38 special sessions since Oregon's statehood, ranging from one day on eight occasions to 37 days in 1982.

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Tax filing delay looms if no fix for minimum tax: IRS

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The top U.S. tax collector warned on Thursday of a delayed start to 2013's tax season if Congress fails to reset the alternative minimum tax (AMT) on high-income taxpayers so that it does not sweep in millions of middle-income people.
Without another adjustment by lawmakers soon to the AMT, "many of us will see a delayed filing season," said Steven Miller, named just last month as Internal Revenue Service acting commissioner.
Miller did not give an exact date by which Congress must approve an AMT "patch" to prevent a delay to the tax season, which is scheduled to begin on January 22.
"We don't have any drop-dead time in mind," Miller told reporters after a speech at a conference in Washington.
But his remarks came on a day of continued stalemate in Washington between Democrats and Republicans over what to do about the "fiscal cliff" approaching at the end of the year.
The AMT is a crucial part of the assorted tax increases and automatic spending cuts that make up the so-called "cliff," a convergence of events that, absent congressional action, threatens to plunge the U.S. economy back into recession.
"Many people don't realize that they could potentially face a significantly delayed filing season and a much bigger tax bill for 2012," if the AMT is not dealt with, Miller said.
"In programming our systems, the IRS has assumed that Congress will patch the AMT as Congress has for so many years.
"And I remain optimistic that the fiscal cliff debate will be resolved by the end of the year. If that turns out not to be the case, then what is clear is that many of us will see a delayed filing season," Miller said.
The AMT is a tax intended to make sure that at least some tax is paid by high-income people who otherwise could sharply reduce or eliminate their regular income tax bills through using tax loopholes. About 4 million people annually pay the AMT.
Unlike the regular income tax, the AMT is not indexed for inflation. So the thresholds that determine who must pay the tax have to be regularly raised. This prevents the AMT from hitting middle-class people whose incomes may have crept upward on the back of inflation, but who are not wealthy.
Congress last patched the AMT in late 2010. Without another patch, the AMT could hit as many as 33 million people for the 2012 tax year, according to the IRS.
Democratic Senator Charles Schumer of New York said on Thursday he is "hopeful" that the AMT problem will be fixed with a broader "fiscal cliff" resolution before December 31.
Republicans in Congress may see the AMT as leverage in their "fiscal cliff" negotiations with President Barack Obama and the Democrats.
The IRS might have until mid-January to implement an AMT patch and still start the tax season on time, if Congress approves the fix as expected, said Richard Harvey, a tax professor at Villanova University and a former IRS official.
The AMT "is a ticking time bomb that is going to go off some time in January," Harvey said.

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Cricket-Wade's sparkling century hauls Australia to lead of 138

SYDNEY, Jan 5 (Reuters) - A brilliant century from Matthew Wade gave Australia a first innings lead of 138 when they declared at 432 for nine just before lunch on the third day of the third test against Sri Lanka on Saturday.
Openers Dimuth Karunaratne (17 not out) Tillakaratne Dilshan (0) ushered the tourists to the end of the session on 18 without loss and reduced the deficit to 120 but the morning belonged to wicketkeeper Wade.
The 25-year-old lefthander, playing in just his ninth test, resumed on 47 with Australia just 48 runs ahead of Sri Lanka's first innings tally of 294.
It has been anything but a chanceless innings but Wade comfortably reached his third test half century in the second over of a brilliantly sunny day at the Sydney Cricket Ground.
Peter Siddle was also playing a few shots at the other end as the pair put on 77 for the seventh wicket but it was the sheer power of Wade's strokes that caught the eye.
Siddle was caught behind for 38 off Nuwan Pradeep 50 minutes into the session and Mitchell Starc lasted just five further minutes before departing for two, trapped lbw by spinner Rangana Herath.
When Nathan Lyon departed 10 minutes later for four - bowled through the gate by Herath - it looked like the last rites for Australia's innings at 393 for nine, just 99 runs ahead.
Wade, who was on 70, had other ideas and with Jackson Bird (6) offering support with his first test runs at the other end, he bludgeoned his way to his second test century.
He reached the mark by smashing his ninth four to deep cover and then raced around the ground, arms stretched wide, to take the applause of the crowd in an emotional celebration.

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Cricket-Sri Lanka 225-7 (& 294) v Australia (432-9dec) - close

SYDNEY, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka reached 225-7 in their second innings at close of play on the third day of the third test against Australia at Sydney Cricket Ground on Saturday.
Scores: Sri Lanka 225-7 (Dimuth Karunaratne 85, M. Jayawardene 60) & 294 (Lahiru Thirimanne 91, M. Jayawardene 72; J. Bird 4-41, M. Starc 3-71) Australia 432-9 dec (M. Wade 102 not out, P. Hughes 87, D. Warner 85, M. Clarke 50; R. Herath 4-95) (Editing by John O'Brien)

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UPDATE 3-Cricket-Australia on verge of Sri Lanka series sweep

* Sri Lanka lead by 87
* Wade scores sparkling century
* Karunaratne falls short of maiden ton (Adds quotes)
SYDNEY, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Australia were on the verge of a 3-0 series sweep after reducing Sri Lanka to 225 for seven with a slender lead of 87 at close of play on a dramatic third day of the third test on Saturday.
The hosts dominated the morning courtesy of a sparkling unbeaten century from Matthew Wade before declaring at 432-9 with a first innings lead of 138 just before lunch.
The tourists stormed back in the second session on the back of a century partnership between Dimuth Karunaratne (85) and skipper Mahela Jayawardene (60) to fleetingly raise the prospect of a first ever Sri Lanka test win in Australia.
Karunaratne fell short of his maiden test century soon after tea with his country still six runs in arrears, however, and Sri Lanka then crumbled to lose six wickets for just 93 runs.
At stumps, Dinesh Chandimal (22) and Rangana Herath (9) were at the crease facing a huge task to extend the lead and make Australia's chase anything more than a formality.
"It could have gone pear-shaped quickly," Wade told reporters. "It could have gone the wrong way for us this afternoon but luckily enough our bowlers were good enough and they did well to pull it back.
"We've got to take three wickets as quickly as we can because we don't want to be chasing too many on that wicket."
Tillakaratne Dilshan departed for five after just half an hour of the Sri Lanka innings but Karunaratne soon indicated he was in no mood to capitulate.
The 24-year-old lefthander, playing only his fourth test, smashed 11 boundaries in his 109-ball knock - the best of them a huge lofted six over long-on with which he brought up his second test fifty.
He survive a big scare on 54 when he was dropped behind by Wade but departed soon after tea when the wicketkeeper held on to the ball when Karunaratne was drawn into an edge by Jackson Bird's reverse swing.
Lahiru Thirimanne (7), Thilan Samaraweera (0), Angelo Mathews (16), Jayawardene and Dhammika Prasad (15) then followed to leave the tourists floundering.
"We were very disappointed with the batting in the last session," Karunaratne SAID.
"If Chandimal can put some runs on the board tomorrow, we can do something on this track. I think 150, 175 would be a good target for us.
"The wicket is turning a lot now and the Aussie guys are playing the fourth innings, so I think (spinners) Rangana and Dilshan can do something."
FINAL TEST
Samaraweera's wicket received the biggest cheer of the day as Mike Hussey, playing in his final test before retirement, took the catch in the deep off the bowling of Nathan Lyon.
The 37-year-old batsman got another rousing ovation when he bowled the last over of the day.
Wade had earned plenty of cheers in the opening session with a knock of 102 as bright as the pink shirts and hats being worn by much of the crowd in support of former Australia fast bowler Glenn McGrath's breast cancer charity.
The lefthander resumed on 47 with Australia just 48 runs ahead of Sri Lanka's first innings tally of 294 and he reached his third test half century in the second over.
Initially combining with Peter Siddle (38) in a partnership of 77 for the seventh wicket, the sheer power of his strokes had the 24,675 crowd purring in the Sydney sunshine.
When Siddle, Mitchell Starc and Lyon were dismissed in quick succession it looked like the last rites for Australia's innings at 393-9.
Wade, who was on 70, had other ideas and with Bird at the other end offering support with his first six test runs, he bludgeoned his way to his second test century.
He reached the mark by smashing his ninth four to deep cover and then raced around the ground, arms outstretched, in an emotional celebration of his first hundred on home soil.
"It was an amazing feeling. To do it on a day like today, with the McGrath foundation day, was something special. I will never forget it," said Wade, who was diagnosed with testicular cancer as a teenager.

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NHL, union make progress in marathon talks

 Marathon talks between the NHL and the players' association stretched deep into Saturday night and then Sunday morning after the sides stayed apart for most of the previous two days.
Once federal mediator Scot Beckenbaugh convinced the fighting factions to resume face-to-face negotiations Saturday afternoon, they were able to make progress. While no one commented publicly on what was accomplished, it was reported that headway was being made on key issues such as the pension plan and salary cap limits.
The sides began meeting around 1 p.m. EST and were still talking at 3:30 a.m. It was the longest session of this lockout and the second marathon meeting of the week. It also was the latest a session had gone into the night.
The league and the union talked until 1 a.m. Thursday before negotiations hit a snag.
Bargaining proceeded at a slow pace on Saturday, and the sides also separated to hold internal caucuses. Beckenbaugh conducted meetings alone with the union and league before bringing them together.
Beckenbaugh walked back and forth several times Friday between the Manhattan headquarters of each side — beginning at 10 a.m. and wrapping things up shortly before 11 p.m.
While he never got the league and the union in the same room then, enough was accomplished to convince the sides to keep going.
Beckenbaugh began Saturday by holding a meeting with the union and then walked over to talk to the NHL office. He then made the trek back to the players' association's hotel for the group meeting.
The sides have less than a week to reach a new collective bargaining agreement to save what likely would be a 48-game hockey season.
Beckenbaugh also took part in talks during the 2004-05 lockout, which forced the cancellation of the whole season.
The players' association concluded a two-day vote among its members on Saturday night that was expected to again give the union's executive board the authority to declare a disclaimer of interest.
The disclaimer can now be issued at any time. If so, the union would dissolve and become a trade association. That could send this fight to the courts and put the season in jeopardy. The disclaimer would allow players to file individual antitrust suits against the NHL.
Earlier this week, a self-imposed deadline expired on the first authorization that union members gave the board. The initial threat seemed to work in getting the NHL back to the bargaining table, but talks broke down Wednesday night after the deadline passed without action taken by the union.
Now the players want to regain the leverage the potential disclaimer gives them.
NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman set a Jan. 11 deadline for a deal so the season can begin eight days later. A 48-game season is the minimum Bettman said the league would play.
All games through Jan. 14, along with the All-Star game, have been canceled, claiming more than 50 percent of the original schedule.
Trust has become a major impediment in the talks that appear to have been rescued to some extent by Beckenbaugh.
On Thursday morning, the sides solved a problem that arose regarding the reporting by clubs of hockey-related revenue, and how both sides sign off on the figures at the end of the fiscal year. The union felt the language had been changed without proper notification. That dispute was over in about an hour, but clearly discord was present in the talks.
Another small meeting, the second of the day without union head Donald Fehr, addressed the pension plan. That one lasted just under two hours and marked the last time the sides met this week.
The players' association held a late Thursday afternoon conference call to initiate its second vote on the disclaimer of interest.
A sense of progress might be why the union didn't declare the disclaimer Wednesday, but any optimism created after the deadline passed has taken several hits since.
The NHLPA filed a motion in federal court in New York seeking to dismiss the league's suit to have the lockout declared legal. The NHL sued the union in mid-December, figuring the players were about to submit their own complaint against the league.
But the union argued that the NHL is using the suit "to force the players to remain in a union. Not only is it virtually unheard of for an employer to insist on the unionization of its employees, it is also directly contradicted by the rights guaranteed to employees under ... the National Labor Relations Act."
The court scheduled a status conference for the sides on Monday.
The sides have traded four proposals in the past week — two by each side — but none has gained enough traction. Getting an agreement on a pension plan likely would go a long way toward a deal that would put hockey back on the ice.
Fehr believed a plan for a players-funded pension was established before talks blew up in early December. That apparently wasn't the case, or the NHL changed its offer regarding the pension in exchange for agreeing to other things the union wanted.
The salary-cap number for the second year of the deal — the 2013-14 season — hasn't been agreed to, and is another major point of contention. The league is pushing for a $60 million cap, while the union wants it to be $65 million with a floor of $44 million.
In return for the higher cap, players would be willing to forgo a cap on escrow.
Other issues still needing resolution include the maximum length of player contracts, the yearly variance in salary of those individual deals, and how long the CBA should be in effect.
Both sides seem content on it lasting for 10 years, but they had different opinions on whether an opt-out should be allowed to be exercised after seven years or eight.
Last season, the NHL posted record revenues of $3.3 billion. The sides seem likely to agree on a 50-50 split of the pot in any new deal.
The NHL is the only North American professional sports league to cancel a season because of a labor dispute, losing the 2004-05 campaign to a lockout. A 48-game season was played in 1995 after a lockout stretched into January.

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NHL, union engage marathon talks; no deal yet

The NHL and the players' association made progress during more than 15 hours of negotiations, but they likely will need more time to work out a deal to end the months-long lockout.
Talks were still going strong past 4 a.m. EST Sunday. There just didn't appear to be an agreement in sight yet.
"Doubtful," NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly told The Associated Press in an email when asked if the possibility existed for a new agreement in this extended round of talks.
It certainly wasn't from a lack of trying.
After nearly 13 hours of meeting separately with federal mediator Scot Beckenbaugh on Friday, the sides again had talks with him Saturday morning. That laid the groundwork for the marathon negotiations that began around 1 p.m. and were coming close to the daylight hours in Manhattan.
The league and the union had stayed mostly apart the previous two days after talks turned sour.
Once Beckenbaugh convinced the fighting factions to resume face-to-face negotiations Saturday afternoon, they were able to make progress. While no one commented publicly on what was accomplished, it was reported that headway was being made on key issues such as the pension plan and salary cap limits.
This marked the longest bargaining session of this lockout and the second marathon meeting of the week. It also was the latest hour the sides were together.
The league and the union talked until 1 a.m. Thursday before negotiations hit a snag.
Bargaining proceeded at a slow pace on Saturday, and the sides also separated to hold internal caucuses. Beckenbaugh conducted meetings alone with the union and league before bringing them together.
Beckenbaugh walked back and forth several times Friday between the headquarters of each side — beginning at 10 a.m. and wrapping things up shortly before 11 p.m.
While he never got the league and the union in the same room then, enough was accomplished to convince the sides to keep going.
Beckenbaugh began Saturday by holding a meeting with the union and then walked over to talk to the NHL office. He then made the trek back to the players' association's hotel for the group meeting.
The sides have less than a week to reach a new collective bargaining agreement to save what likely would be a 48-game hockey season.
Beckenbaugh also took part in talks during the 2004-05 lockout, which forced the cancellation of the whole season.
The players' association concluded a two-day vote among its members on Saturday night that was expected to again give the union's executive board the authority to declare a disclaimer of interest.
The disclaimer can now be issued at any time. If so, the union would dissolve and become a trade association. That could send this fight to the courts and put the season in jeopardy. The disclaimer would allow players to file individual antitrust suits against the NHL.
Earlier this week, a self-imposed deadline expired on the first authorization that union members gave the board. The initial threat seemed to work in getting the NHL back to the bargaining table, but talks broke down Wednesday night after the deadline passed without action taken by the union.
Now the players want to regain the leverage the potential disclaimer gives them.
NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman set a Jan. 11 deadline for a deal so the season can begin eight days later. A 48-game season is the minimum Bettman said the league would play.
All games through Jan. 14, along with the All-Star game, have been canceled, claiming more than 50 percent of the original schedule.
Trust has become a major impediment in the talks that appear to have been rescued to some extent by Beckenbaugh.
On Thursday morning, the sides solved a problem that arose regarding the reporting by clubs of hockey-related revenue, and how both sides sign off on the figures at the end of the fiscal year. The union felt the language had been changed without proper notification. That dispute was over in about an hour, but clearly discord was present in the talks.
Another small meeting, the second of the day without union head Donald Fehr, addressed the pension plan. That one lasted just under two hours and marked the last time the sides met this week.
The players' association held a late Thursday afternoon conference call to initiate its second vote on the disclaimer of interest.
A sense of progress might be why the union didn't declare the disclaimer Wednesday, but any optimism created after the deadline passed has taken several hits since.
The NHLPA filed a motion in federal court in New York seeking to dismiss the league's suit to have the lockout declared legal. The NHL sued the union in mid-December, figuring the players were about to submit their own complaint against the league.
But the union argued that the NHL is using the suit "to force the players to remain in a union. Not only is it virtually unheard of for an employer to insist on the unionization of its employees, it is also directly contradicted by the rights guaranteed to employees under ... the National Labor Relations Act."
The court scheduled a status conference for the sides on Monday.
The sides have traded four proposals in the past week — two by each side — but none has gained enough traction. Getting an agreement on a pension plan likely would go a long way toward a deal that would put hockey back on the ice.
Fehr believed a plan for a players-funded pension was established before talks blew up in early December. That apparently wasn't the case, or the NHL changed its offer regarding the pension in exchange for agreeing to other things the union wanted.
The salary-cap number for the second year of the deal — the 2013-14 season — hasn't been agreed to, and is another major point of contention. The league is pushing for a $60 million cap, while the union wants it to be $65 million with a floor of $44 million.
In return for the higher cap, players would be willing to forgo a cap on escrow.
Other issues still needing resolution include the maximum length of player contracts, the yearly variance in salary of those individual deals, and how long the CBA should be in effect.
Both sides seem content on it lasting for 10 years, but they had different opinions on whether an opt-out should be allowed to be exercised after seven years or eight.
Last season, the NHL posted record revenues of $3.3 billion. The sides seem likely to agree on a 50-50 split of the pot in any new deal.
The NHL is the only North American professional sports league to cancel a season because of a labor dispute, losing the 2004-05 campaign to a lockout. A 48-game season was played in 1995 after a lockout stretched into January.

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NHL, union reach tentative agreement

It looks like there will be a hockey season after all — shortened for sure, but perhaps back in business in a week or so.
The NHL and the players' association reached a tentative agreement early Sunday to end a nearly four-month-old lockout that threatened to wipe out what was left of an already abbreviated season.
A marathon negotiating session that lasted more than 16 hours, stretching from Saturday afternoon until just before dawn Sunday, produced a 10-year deal.
"We've got to dot a lot of Is and cross a lot of Ts," Commissioner Gary Bettman said. "There's still a lot of work to be done."
All schedule issues, including the length of the season and the look of the schedule, still need to be worked out. The NHL has models for 50- and 48-game seasons.
The original estimate was regular-season games could begin about eight days after a deal was reached. It is believed that all games will be played within the two respective conferences, but that also hasn't been decided.
The collective bargaining agreement still must be ratified by a majority of the league's 30 owners and the union's membership of approximately 740 players.
"Hopefully within a very few days the fans can get back to watching people who are skating, not the two of us," players' association executive director Donald Fehr said of himself and Bettman.
The players have been locked out since Sept. 16, the day after the previous agreement expired.
"Any process like this is difficult. It can be long," Fehr said.
Under the negotiated CBA, free-agent contracts will have a maximum length of seven years, but clubs can go to eight years to re-sign their own players. Each side can opt out of the deal after eight years.
The pension plan was "the centerpiece of the deal for the players," said Winnipeg Jets defenseman Ron Hainsey, who took part in negotiations throughout the process.
The actual language of the pension plan still has to be written, but Hainsey said there is nothing substantial that needs to be fixed.
"I want to thank Don Fehr," Bettman said. "We went through a tough period, but it's good to be at this point."
The players' share of hockey-related income, that reached a record $3.3 billion last season, will drop from 57 percent to a 50-50 split. The salary cap for the upcoming season will be $70.2 million and will then drop to $64.3 million in the 2013-14 season. All clubs will have to have a minimum payroll of $44 million.
The league had wanted next season's cap to drop to $60 million, but agreed to the same amount of last season's upper limit.
Inside individual player contracts, the salary can't vary more than 35 percent year to year, and the final year can't be more than 50 percent of the highest year.
A decision on whether NHL players will participate in the 2014 Olympics will be made outside the confines of the collective bargaining agreement. While it's expected that players will take part, the IOC and the International Ice Hockey Federation will have discussions with the league and the union before the matter is settled.
After the sides stayed mostly apart for two days, following late-night talks that turned sour, federal mediator Scot Beckenbaugh worked virtually around the clock to get everyone back to the bargaining table.
This time it worked — early on the 113th day of the work stoppage.
George Cohen, the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service director, called the deal "the successful culmination of a long and difficult road."
"Of course, the agreement will pave the way for the professional players to return to the ice and for the owners to resume their business operations," he said in a statement. "But the good news extends beyond the parties directly involved; fans throughout North America will have the opportunity to return to a favorite pastime and thousands of working men and women and small businesses will no longer be deprived of their livelihoods."
Time was clearly a factor, with the sides facing a deadline of Thursday or Friday to reach a deal that would allow for a 48-game season to start a week later. Bettman had said the league could not allow a season of fewer than 48 games per team.
All games through Jan. 14, along with the All-Star game and the New Year's Day Winter Classic had already been canceled, claiming more than 50 percent of the original schedule.
Without an agreement, the NHL faced the embarrassment of losing two seasons due to a labor dispute, something that has never happened in another North American sports league. The 2004-05 season was wiped out while the sides negotiated hockey's first salary cap.

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Deportations of illegal immigrants in 2012 reach new US record

The United States deported more than 400,000 illegal immigrants in 2012, the most of any year in the nation’s history, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reports.
The record number, released Friday, is also important for another reason: It is a stinging reminder to Latinos that President Obama failed during his first term to pursue the comprehensive immigration reform that they seek.
The Obama administration framed its 2012 work in immigration enforcement as focused mainly on criminals – 55 percent of deportations came from convicted criminals, a record high – rather than on indiscriminately rounding up illegal immigrants and sending them home. ICE on Friday also issued new detention guidelines intended to emphasize legal action against those who have committed crimes above and beyond immigration violations.
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“While the [fiscal year] 2012 removals indicate that we continue to make progress in focusing resources on criminal and priority aliens, we are constantly looking for ways to ensure that we are doing everything we can to utilize our resources in a way that maximizes public safety,” ICE Director John Morton said in a statement.
In four years, the Obama administration has deported three-quarters of the number of people that President George W. Bush’s administration did in eight. And unlike Mr. Bush, Obama made no concerted effort to reform the US immigration system – a history that’s not lost on the president’s Latino supporters.
"This is nothing to be proud of,” said Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) of Illinois, a leading lawmaker on immigration reform for a decade, in a statement on the deportation statistics.
While Representative Gutierrez lauded the crackdown on criminals as necessary, he said some 90,000 undocumented parents of American-born children continue to be deported each year.
“We must also realize that among these hundreds of thousands of deportations are parents and breadwinners and heads of American families that are assets to American communities and have committed no crimes,” the Gutierrez statement said. "Solving this problem in a humane and sensible way requires Congress to act on immigration reform and do what we have been unable to do for 25 or 30 years.”
The closest the Obama administration came to reshaping immigration policy was the summer 2012 implementation of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, whereby some young unauthorized immigrants could gain a two-year deferral of deportation and access to work permits and driver's licenses.
Some 355,000 people have applied under the program, and just over 100,000 have been approved through mid-December, according to the latest data from US Citizenship and Immigration Services. As many as 1.7 million undocumented immigrants could be eligible for the program over time, experts say.
While immigration advocates cheered the president's DACA order, they also remember his unfulfilled promise at the start of his term in 2009 to take on immigration reform, as well as the record number of deportations under his watch.
“The credibility of the president is on the line,” says Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum. “The president has to lead. The president has to show Republicans and Democrats that he’s serious about this and that he’s not just going to use it as a political lightning rod.”
Obama has promised to tackle immigration reform early in 2013, and congressional discussions about potential legislation are under way between lawmakers from both parties in the House and Senate.
If Obama doesn’t, Republicans will be eager to point out that Democrats once again broke their promises to some of the left’s key voting blocs.
“I just want to remind all of you, though, that the Democrats had two years to do something about immigration reform,” said Rep. Raul Labrador (R) of Idaho after a vote on a GOP-led bill that would have[would have? didnt that pass?] killed the diversity visa lottery in favor of more visas for highly educated immigrants in the STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) fields.
“They had a White House. They had the House. They had the Senate. And they did nothing about immigration reform,” he said.
And that could make Latino and Asian voters, who sided overwhelmingly with Democrats in the 2012 election, susceptible to Republican overtures in the future.
“Everybody talks about the incredible turnout of the new American vote in 2012, but Latinos, Asians, and other voters are not die-hard Democrats,” Mr. Noorani says. “There’s a lot of space there for Republicans to step into.”
Until Obama and reform-minded members of Congress make good on their vows that 2013 will yield a comprehensive fix to America’s immigration system, however, Latino, Asian, and other pro-immigration forces will continue to feel uneasy about the high level of deportations under a Democratic president.
“We are the one country,” Gutierrez told the Monitor in a prior interview, “that orphans children who have parents.

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Republicans Turn to An Unlikely Name for Inspiration: George W. Bush

As Republicans reassess their future in the presidential wilderness, seeking a message and messenger to resonate with a new generation of voters, one unlikely name has popped up as a role model: former President George W. Bush.
Prominent Republicans eager to rebuild the party in the wake of the 2012 election are pointing to Bush’s successful campaigns for Hispanic votes, his efforts to pass immigration reform, and his mantra of “compassionate conservatism.” Bush won 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000 and at least 40 percent in 2004, a high-water mark for a Republican presidential candidate.
In contrast, Romney received only 27 percent of the Latino vote, after taking a hard-line approach to illegal immigration during the Republican presidential primaries, touting “self-deportation” for undocumented workers. In exit polls, a majority of voters said that Romney was out of touch with the American people and that his policies would favor the rich. While Romney beat Obama on questions of leadership, values, and vision, the president trounced him by 63 points when voters were asked which candidate “cares about people like me.”
These signs of wear and tear to the Republican brand are prompting some of Bush’s critics to acknowledge his political foresight and ability to connect with a diverse swath of Americans, although the economic crash and unpopular wars on his watch make it unlikely he will ever be held up as a great president.
“I think I owe an apology to George W. Bush,” wrote Jonah Goldberg, editor-at-large of the conservative National Review Online, after the election. “I still don't like compassionate conservatism or its conception of the role of government. But given the election results, I have to acknowledge that Bush was more prescient than I appreciated at the time.”
The ebb in Bush-bashing could help pave the way for a 2016 presidential bid by his brother, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, another proponent of immigration reform with proven appeal in the Hispanic community. “The Bush family knows how to expand the party and how to win,” said GOP consultant Mark McKinnon, a former George W. Bush political aide, when asked about a possible Jeb Bush campaign. Voter wariness toward a third Bush administration could ease if the former president and his father, who served one term, are remembered less for their failures and more for their advocacy of “compassionate conservatism” and “a kinder, gentler nation.”
“I think all that certainly helps if Jeb decides to do so something down the road, though I think he will eventually be judged on his own,” said Al Cardenas, chairman of the American Conservative Union, who led the Florida Republican Party when Bush was governor.
President Bush’s press secretary, Ari Fleischer, was tapped last week by the Republican National Committee to serve on a five-member committee examining what went wrong in the 2012 election. Two days earlier, a survey released by Resurgent Republic and the Hispanic Leadership Network found that a majority of Hispanic voters in Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico  don’t think the GOP “respects” their values and concerns.
“One of the party’s biggest challenges going forward is the perception that Republicans don’t care about people, about minorities, about gays, about poor people,” Fleischer said. “President Bush regularly made a push to send welcoming messages, and one of the lessons of 2012 is that we have to demonstrate that we are an inclusive party.”
President Bush’s success with minority voters stemmed in large part from his two campaigns for governor in Texas. He liked to say, “Family values don’t stop at the Rio Grande.” Unlike Romney, who invested little in Spanish-language advertising until the final two months of his campaign, Bush began reaching out to Hispanics early; he outspent his Democratic opponents in Spanish media in both the 2000 and 2004 campaigns.
“I remember people grumbling about making calls in December 2003, but we kept pushing,” said Jennifer Korn, who led Bush’s Hispanic outreach in his 2004 campaign. The president’s upbeat Spanish-language ads depicted Latino families getting ahead in school and at work. “I’m with Bush because he understands my family,” was the theme of one spot.
Korn, who now serves as executive director of the Hispanic Leadership Network, said Republicans are constantly asking her how the party can win a bigger share of the Latino vote.
“I tell them we already did it,” she said. “President Obama just took Bush’s plan and updated it.”
Republicans are also looking at the groundwork that Bush laid on immigration reform. He has kept a low profile since leaving office, but he waded into the debate in a speech in Dallas last month. The legislation he backed in his second term would have increased border security, created a guest-worker program, and allowed illegal immigrants to earn citizenship after paying penalties and back taxes.
“America can be a lawful society and a welcoming society at the same time,” Bush said in Dallas. “As our nation debates the proper course of action related to immigration I hope we do so with a benevolent spirit and keep in mind the contributions of immigrants.”
Bush is even a presence in the current high-stakes budget negotiations between Capitol Hill and the White House. Although the tax cuts enacted by the Bush administration for the wealthiest Americans have been a major sticking point, the tax policy it put in place for the vast majority of households has bipartisan support.
“When you consider that the Obama administration is talking about not whether to extend the Bush tax cuts but how much of them to extend, you see that Bush is still setting the agenda,” said Republican consultant Alex Castellanos, who worked on Bush’s 2004 campaign.
While a possible presidential bid by Jeb Bush heightens the impact of his brother’s evolving legacy, it’s not unusual for a president’s image to change after leaving office. (Look at former President Clinton, who enjoyed positive ratings during most of his presidency, infuriated Obama supporters during Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential campaign in 2008, and emerged after the election as a better Democratic spokesman than Obama.)  Gallup pegged Bush’s presidential approval at 25 percent at the end of his second term, the lowest ranking since Richard Nixon. But after President Obama spearheaded unpopular spending packages and health care reforms, Bush’s popularity began to tick up.
A Bloomberg News survey in late September showed Bush’s favorability at 46 percent, 3 points higher than Romney’s rating. Still, with a majority of voters viewing the former president unfavorably, Romney rarely, if ever, mentioned his name during the campaign. Asked to address the differences between him and the former president in one of the debates, Romney said, “I’m going to get us to a balanced budget. President Bush didn’t.” Obama seized on the comparison, taking the unusual tack of praising the Republican successor he had vilified in his first campaign to portray Romney as an extremist.
“George Bush didn’t propose turning Medicare into a voucher,” Obama said. “George Bush embraced comprehensive immigration reform. He didn’t call for self-deportation. George Bush never suggested that we eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood.”
Democrats and moderate Republicans found themselves cheering for Bush, if only for a moment. A majority of voters said that Bush is more to blame for the current economic problems than Obama, according to exit polling. If Bush wasn’t the bigger scapegoat, Obama may not have won a second term.
Veterans of Bush’s campaigns and administrations say that while learning from his mistakes, Republicans should also take note of the political risks he took by proposing reforms to immigration and education laws and boosting funding for community health centers and AIDS outreach in Africa.
“One of the issues we ran into in the 2012 campaign is that there weren’t a lot of differences between Mitt Romney and Republican orthodoxy,” said Terry Nelson, Bush’s political director in the 2004 campaign. “I think that’s something Republican candidates in the future have to consider.  The public respects it when you can show you can stand up to your party on certain issues. Bush did that.

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