Has Obama Been Good for Millionaires?

The question of whether Americans are better off than they were four years ago depends, of course, on the American.
For the 12 million unemployed, the answer is most certainly no.
But for many of America's millionaires, the answer may be more affirmative.
A new study from WealthInsight, the London-based wealth-research and data firm (and yes, they are non-partisan), showed that the United States added 1.1 million millionaires between Jan. 1, 2009 and the end of 2011, the latest period measured. There were 5.1 million millionaires in America at the end of 2011, compared with around 4 million at the end of 2008.
That works out to more than 1,000 millionaires a day under the Obama administration. (They defined millionaires as people with total net worth of $1 million or more, excluding primary residence).
(Read more: Rich Will Spend More Under Romney: Poll)
"It's true that Obama has been good for millionaires, at least in absolute terms," said Andrew Amoils, analyst at WealthInsight. "He certainly hasn't been bad for millionaires."
Amoils said that quantitative easing and financial bailouts especially helped the finance sector, which accounts for the largest share of millionaires. It also helped that markets recovered in 2009.
The timeframe is worth noting. Measured against the 2007 peak, when 5.27 million Americans had a net worth of at least $1 million, the nation lost 165,360 millionaires. Their combined wealth is down six percent, to $18.8 trillion from a peak of more than $20 trillion in 2007.
We don't know how 2012 will turn out, though if stock markets continue to strengthen, the millionaire count for 2012 is likely to increase. Wealth Insight says the number of millionaires in America will grow to more than six million by 2016, and their combined fortunes will jump 25 percent over the same period.
(Read more: Millionaires Give Nine Percent of Income to Charity)
Where did all the millionaires come from between 2008 and 2011?
Mainly from retail, tech and finance -- and in both blue and red states.
Of the sectors adding the largest number of people worth $30 million or more, the retail, fashion, and luxury goods sector ranked first. That was followed by energy and utilities, then tech, telecoms and finance. Transportation and construction saw the biggest drops.
The number of people worth $30 million or more grew 26 percent in Connecticut since 2008, 20 percent in Kansas, 12 percent in Michigan, showing that the wealth creation was nationwide.

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Obama Wins 2012 Election: Why Your Taxes Are Going Up

When President Obama and the new Congress begin to tackle important legislation and federal policy in January, one of the key issues will be how to reform America's byzantine tax code.
Obama campaigned on a platform to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, declaring that millionaires and billionaires need to "pay their fair share." The president proposed the highly controversial "Buffett Rule," which would make sure those individuals earning more than $1 million a year would pay at least 30% of their income in federal taxes.
Related: Do the Rich Have a Moral Obligation to Pay Higher Taxes? Gov. Jerry Brown Says 'Yes'
The top individual tax rate is currently 35% but few U.S. households and individuals actually pay that much; various tax deductions and loopholes reduce one's tax burden.
According to the Obama campaign, the richest 400 taxpayers in 2008 (who each made more than $110 million that year) paid an average income tax rate of just 18%. In 2009 over 20,000 U.S. households with more than $1 million in income paid a federal tax rate of less than 15%.
Obama has vowed to raise the top income tax rate for individuals to 39.6% and let the Bush-era tax breaks end for the highest income earners. The majority of Americans — those who are lower to middle class — could also see a 2% tax increase if Congress allows the temporary payroll tax holiday to expire at the end of the year.
Related: Here's Why Your Taxes Are Going Up 2% Next Year: Just Explain It
Nearly half of voters support raising taxes on incomes over $250,000, according to Tuesday night's exit polls.
Len Burman, a professor of public affairs at Syracuse University and a co-founder of the bipartisan Tax Policy Center, believes higher tax rates play just a small role in resolving the nation's budget woes.
"In the long term [Obama] is going to need to raise taxes on more than just the rich," Burman says in an interview with The Daily Ticker. "The budget problem isn't going to be solved without broader-based tax increases, preferably done in the context of tax reform and also serious entitlement reform. We're not going to be able to solve this on the tax side alone."
Burman, who recently co-wrote the new book "Taxes in America: What Everyone Needs to Know," says tax rates do not need to be raised for any income group if Congress and the White House would agree on one simple change: raising the capital gains rate, i.e. the profits from the sale of an investment. Assets, such as stocks, art or real estate, that are held for at least a year are currently taxed at a special 15% rate; Obama wants to raise that to 20%.
"The problem with a low tax rate on capital gains is not that it allows Mitt Romney and Warren Buffett to pay very low taxes but that it creates this huge opportunity for tax sheltering," he notes. "There's a whole industry that's devoted to coming up with these schemes. [Raising capital gains rates] could make the tax system more progressive and allow for lower tax rates" and a reduction in the deficit Burman says.
Obama's tax proposal also targets the Alternative Minimum Tax, the Estate Tax and as well as many personal tax credits and itemized deductions. Obama would make permanent the 2007 AMT patch and index it for inflation. He would raise the estate tax to 45% from 35% on estates worth more than $3.5 million. He would lower the corporate tax rate to 28% from 35% and provide a refundable $3,000 credit per added employee for companies that expand their workforce. He would tax carried interest as ordinary income.
Related: Corporate Tax Loopholes=Corporate Socialism: Pulitzer Prize Winner David Cay Johnston
A divided Congress refused to compromise with Obama during his first term and could very well dismiss the president's tax reforms for the next four years. Republicans are loathe to raise taxes by even a penny and Obama has said he would veto any budget bills that did not include tax increases. Neither party wants to raise taxes in a weak economy. But the options available for reducing the deficit and generating new revenue are few and far between.

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Wall Street sinks after election as "fiscal cliff" eyed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow industrials lost more than 300 points in a sell-off on Wednesday that drove all major stock indexes down over 2 percent in the wake of the presidential election as investors' focus shifted to the looming "fiscal cliff" debate and Europe's economic troubles.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index posted its biggest daily percentage drop since June, with all 10 S&P sectors solidly lower and about 80 percent of stocks on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq ending in negative territory. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 closed at their lowest levels since early August.
Financial stocks and energy shares, two sectors that could face increased regulation after President Barack Obama's re-election, were the weakest on the day. The S&P financial index (.GSPF) lost 3.5 percent, while the S&P energy index (REU:^GSPEI) fell 3.1 percent. An S&P index of technology shares (.GSPT) slid 2.8 percent as the stock of Apple Inc (AAPL) entered bear market territory.
Obama's victory had been anticipated, though many polls indicated a close race between the president and Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger, going into election day.
The election was considered a major source of uncertainty for the market, but now the focus turns to the fiscal cliff, with investors worrying that if no deal is reached over some $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases due to kick in early next year, it could derail the economic recovery.
The Republican Party retained control of the U.S. House of Representatives, while the Senate remained under Democratic control.
David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Boston, said this kind of divided government was disappointing "since that configuration has resulted in gridlock and there's no clear path towards unlocking that.
"It holds implications for how quickly we resolve the fiscal cliff issue, or whether it gets resolved at all," said Joy, who helps oversee $571 billion in assets.
The market's losses were broad, with pessimism exacerbated by overseas concerns after the European Commission said the region would barely grow next year, dashing hopes for improvement in the short term.
Still, some viewed the day's slide as a buying opportunity, saying it was unlikely that no deal would be reached on the fiscal cliff and arguing that Europe's troubles were already priced into markets.
"There's no question that Europe is lagging the rest of the developed and emerging world, but stocks will find a base soon, when investors start seeing through some of the smoke over the region and cliff," said Richard Weiss, who helps oversee about $120 billion in assets as a senior money manager at American Century Investments in Mountain View, California.
The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) slid 312.95 points, or 2.36 percent, to close at 12,932.73. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^GSPC) fell 33.86 points, or 2.37 percent, to 1,394.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC) lost 74.64 points, or 2.48 percent, to close at 2,937.29.
The S&P 500 closed below the key 1,400 level for the first time since August 30, while the Dow ended under 13,000 for the first time since August 2.
About 7.81 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, slightly below last year's daily average of 7.84 billion, though Wednesday's volume did surpass that of many recent sessions.
Contributing to the Nasdaq's decline, Apple shares fell 3.8 percent to $558, off 20.8 percent from an all-time intraday high of $705.07 set on September 21. That slump puts the stock of the world's most valuable publicly traded company in bear market territory.
Despite Wednesday's sell-off, all three major U.S. stock indexes were still up for the year. At Wednesday's close, the Dow was up 5.9 percent for 2012 so far, while the S&P 500 was up 10.9 percent and the Nasdaq was up 12.8 percent.
Wednesday's plunge was a reversal from Tuesday's rally when voting was under way. Defense and energy shares were among the market leaders that day, causing speculation that some investors were betting on a Romney win.
On Wednesday, an index of defense shares (.DFX) fell 2.9 percent, its biggest one-day drop in a year. Shares of United Technologies (UTX) dropped 2.9 percent to $77.68 while Lockheed Martin (LMT) sank 3.9 percent to $91.15.
Energy shares fell as investors bet that the industry may see increased regulation in Obama's second term, with less access to federal lands and water. Crude oil shed more than 4 percent while an index of coal companies (.DJUSCL) plunged 8.8 percent. Coal firms Peabody Energy (BTU) lost 9.6 percent to $26.24 and Arch Coal (ACI) sank 12.5 percent to $7.58.
Among financials, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) fell 5.6 percent to $40.46 and Goldman Sachs (GS) dropped 6.6 percent to $117.98.
"The notion that you may have gotten a respite on the financial services side (with regulation) if Romney had been elected is obviously being unwound," said Mike Ryan, chief investment strategist at UBS Wealth Management Americas in New York.
Healthcare stocks were mixed as President Obama's re-election rules out the possibility of a wholesale repeal of his healthcare reform law, though questions remain as to what parts of the domestic policy will be implemented. The S&P health care index (REU:^GSPAI) shed 1.9 percent. In contrast, Tenet Healthcare (THC) was the S&P 500's biggest percentage gainer, up 9.6 percent at $27.34.
In 2008, stocks also rallied on election day, but then fell by the largest margin on record for a day following the vote, with each of the three major U.S. stock indexes posting losses ranging from 5 percent to 5.5 percent.
After the bell, both Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) and Whole Foods Market Inc (WFM) reported results. Qualcom's revenue beat expectations, sending shares up 8 percent to $62.75 in extended trading, while Whole Foods dropped 3.3 percent to $92.75 after the bell. In the regular session, Qualcomm slid 3.7 percent to close at $58.12, while Whole Foods dropped 2.1 percent to $95.93.

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H&R Block 2Q loss narrows as revenue rises

 H&R Block's fiscal second-quarter loss narrowed, helped by cost-cutting efforts. Revenue climbed mostly because of a strong tax season in Australia.
The nation's largest tax preparation company typically turns in a loss in the August-to-October period because it takes in most of its revenue during the U.S. tax season. H&R Block's quarterly performance beat analysts' estimates and its stock hit the highest level in more than two years.
The company is optimistic and gearing up for its busy season.
"The U.S. tax season is right around the corner and we believe we're on pace to deliver significant earnings and margin expansion in fiscal 2013," President and CEO Bill Cobb said in a statement on Thursday.
For the three months ended Oct. 31, H&R Block Inc. lost $105.2 million, or 39 cents per share. A year earlier it lost $141.7 million, or 47 cents per share, for the quarter.
Its loss from continuing operations was 37 cents per share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected a bigger loss of 41 cents per share.
Selling, general and administrative expenses declined and the quarter was free of any impairment charges. The prior-year period included a $4.3 million impairment charge.
Revenue rose 6 percent to $137.3 million from $129.2 million. This topped Wall Street's forecast of $129.6 million.
Shares of H&R Block gained 89 cents, or 5.1 percent, to close at $18.26. Earlier in the session the stock reached $18.40, its highest point since May 2010.
Tax services revenue increased 7 percent primarily due to the strong Australian tax season. Corporate revenue fell because of lower interest income from H&R Block Bank's shrinking mortgage loan portfolio.
H&R Block disclosed in October that it hired Goldman Sachs to help it explore options for its banking arm, H&R Block Bank. Those options, Block said, could result in the company no longer being regulated as a savings and loan holding company by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve announced some proposed rules in June that would impose higher capital requirements on savings and loan holding companies. H&R Block contends that if the proposed rules are enacted it would have to hold on to significant additional capital.
H&R Block, based in Kansas City, Mo., prepared 25.6 million tax returns worldwide in fiscal 2012.

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Oregon governor says Nike plans to hire thousands

SALEM, Ore. (AP) — Sporting goods giant Nike plans to expand its operations in Oregon and hire as many as 12,000 new workers by 2020 but wants the government to promise it won't change the state tax code, prompting a special session of the Legislature.
Gov. John Kitzhaber said he'll call lawmakers together Friday in Salem to create a new law authorizing him to grant Nike's wish.
The governor did not release information about the company's expansion plans but the $440 million project would create 2,900 construction jobs with an annual economic impact of $2 billion a year.
Nike Inc. has its headquarters in Beaverton. Company officials could not immediately be reached.
The Legislature is due to meet in its regular annual session beginning Jan. 14, but Kitzhaber said Nike needed certainty sooner. The company was being wooed by other states, he said.
"Getting Oregonians back to work is my top priority," Kitzhaber said in a news conference.
Either the governor or the Legislature itself can call lawmakers into session at times other than the state Constitution specifies.
For much of the state's history, the Legislature's regular sessions have been held every other year, at the beginning of odd-numbered years. That's the kind of session the Legislature is scheduled to begin early next year.
In recent years, the Legislature has moved to meet annually, running test sessions of briefer sessions in even-numbered years. Those led to voter approval of a constitutional amendment in 2010 that called for annual sessions.
Records list 38 special sessions since Oregon's statehood, ranging from one day on eight occasions to 37 days in 1982.

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Tax filing delay looms if no fix for minimum tax: IRS

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The top U.S. tax collector warned on Thursday of a delayed start to 2013's tax season if Congress fails to reset the alternative minimum tax (AMT) on high-income taxpayers so that it does not sweep in millions of middle-income people.
Without another adjustment by lawmakers soon to the AMT, "many of us will see a delayed filing season," said Steven Miller, named just last month as Internal Revenue Service acting commissioner.
Miller did not give an exact date by which Congress must approve an AMT "patch" to prevent a delay to the tax season, which is scheduled to begin on January 22.
"We don't have any drop-dead time in mind," Miller told reporters after a speech at a conference in Washington.
But his remarks came on a day of continued stalemate in Washington between Democrats and Republicans over what to do about the "fiscal cliff" approaching at the end of the year.
The AMT is a crucial part of the assorted tax increases and automatic spending cuts that make up the so-called "cliff," a convergence of events that, absent congressional action, threatens to plunge the U.S. economy back into recession.
"Many people don't realize that they could potentially face a significantly delayed filing season and a much bigger tax bill for 2012," if the AMT is not dealt with, Miller said.
"In programming our systems, the IRS has assumed that Congress will patch the AMT as Congress has for so many years.
"And I remain optimistic that the fiscal cliff debate will be resolved by the end of the year. If that turns out not to be the case, then what is clear is that many of us will see a delayed filing season," Miller said.
The AMT is a tax intended to make sure that at least some tax is paid by high-income people who otherwise could sharply reduce or eliminate their regular income tax bills through using tax loopholes. About 4 million people annually pay the AMT.
Unlike the regular income tax, the AMT is not indexed for inflation. So the thresholds that determine who must pay the tax have to be regularly raised. This prevents the AMT from hitting middle-class people whose incomes may have crept upward on the back of inflation, but who are not wealthy.
Congress last patched the AMT in late 2010. Without another patch, the AMT could hit as many as 33 million people for the 2012 tax year, according to the IRS.
Democratic Senator Charles Schumer of New York said on Thursday he is "hopeful" that the AMT problem will be fixed with a broader "fiscal cliff" resolution before December 31.
Republicans in Congress may see the AMT as leverage in their "fiscal cliff" negotiations with President Barack Obama and the Democrats.
The IRS might have until mid-January to implement an AMT patch and still start the tax season on time, if Congress approves the fix as expected, said Richard Harvey, a tax professor at Villanova University and a former IRS official.
The AMT "is a ticking time bomb that is going to go off some time in January," Harvey said.

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Swiss lender ZKB says three charged by U.S. authorities

Swiss lender Zuercher Kantonalbank (ZKB) said two of its bankers and one former employee had been charged by U.S. authorities, which had accused them of helping U.S. clients avoid taxes.
The three were indicted over changes of conspiring with American clients to hide more than $420 million from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, the U.S. Attorney's Office in Manhattan had said on Wednesday.
The indictment did not identify the bank concerned but named Stephan Fellmann, Otto Hueppi and Christof Reist, who it said were all former client advisers for the unnamed institution.
None of the bankers had been arrested, authorities said.
Banking secrecy is enshrined in Swiss law and tradition but has recently come under pressure as the United States and other nations have moved aggressively to tighten tax law enforcement and demand more openness and cooperation.
U.S. authorities are investigating at least 11 banks, including Julius Baer , Credit Suisse and other Swiss regional banks, along with UK-based HSBC Holdings and Israel's Hapoalim, Mizrahi-Tefahot Bank Ltd and Bank Leumi .
In February, Wegelin & Co, Switzerland's oldest private bank, was indicted.
UBS AG , the largest Swiss bank, in 2009 paid a $780 million fine as part of a settlement with U.S. authorities who charged the bank helped thousands of wealthy Americans hide billions of dollars in assets in secret Swiss accounts.
ZKB said in a statement it was cooperating with U.S. authorities. The bank said it could give no details about the employees due to the ongoing investigation and did not confirm what they had been changed with.
ZKB bankers Fellmann and Reist could not be reached for comment. Hueppi declined to comment.

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Existing home sales rise to fastest pace in three years

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Home resales rose sharply in November to their fastest pace in three years, a sign the recovery in the housing market is gaining steam.
The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday that existing home sales climbed 5.9 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million units.
That was the fastest since November 2009, when a federal tax credit for home buyers was due to expire. Sales were well above the median forecast of a 4.87 million-unit rate in a Reuters poll.
The U.S. housing market tanked on the eve of the 2007-09 recession and has yet to fully recover, but steady job creation has helped the housing sector this year, when it is expected to add to economic growth for the first time since 2005.
NAR economist Lawrence Yun said superstorm Sandy, which slammed in the U.S. East Coast in late October and disrupted the regional economy for weeks, had only a slight negative impact on home resales.
The NAR expects some purchases delayed by the storm to add a slight boost to resales over the next few months, Yun said.
Nationwide, the median price for a home resale was $180,600 in November, up 10.1 percent from a year earlier as fewer people sold their homes under distressed conditions compared to the same period in 2011. Distressed sales include foreclosures.
The nation's inventory of existing homes for sale fell 3.8 percent during the month to 2.03 million, the lowest level since December 2001.
At the current pace of sales, inventories would be exhausted in 4.8 months, the lowest rate since September 2005.
Distressed sales fell to 22 percent of total sales from 29 percent a year ago.
The share of distressed sales, which also include those where the sales price was below the amount owed on the home, was also down from 24 percent in October.

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New York City should hike taxes on big business-comptroller

New York City's top financial officer and possible contender for mayor in 2013, John Liu, proposed on Thursday tax hikes for big businesses and an end to Madison Square Garden's $15 million annual property tax exemption.
The proposals by New York City Comptroller John Liu include tax hikes on private equity firms, which would help offset his plan for $500 million in tax breaks and lowered fines for 90 percent of the city's small businesses.
Liu is expected to vie for the Democratic mayoral nomination for the election in November 2013.
The city could end tax breaks for big companies - more than $250 million of which were handed out last year, Liu said.
The city could also eliminate its $15 million annual property tax exemption for Madison Square Garden, the indoor arena in midtown Manhattan that's home to the New York Knicks basketball team. Madison Square Garden has been exempt from paying taxes on real property since 1982 under New York state law.
The arena is owned by The Madison Square Garden Co, which also owns the Knicks and other professional sports teams. The company also owns Radio City Music Hall, the Beacon Theatre and others venues, as well as television networks.
Liu also proposed examining tax breaks for special interests. Insurance companies, for instance, have not paid the general corporation tax since 1974, at a cost of $300 million annually to the city, he said.
Private equity firms could also start paying the unincorporated business tax for carried interest or gains from assets being held for investment. The exemption costs New York City about $200 million a year, Liu said.
Liu's package would use the revenue generated by those measures to offset his plan to ease the tax burden for small businesses.
He proposed ending the city's general corporation tax for all businesses with liabilities under $5,000 -- about 240,000 business in the city, or 85 percent of those that currently pay the tax.
His plan would also reduce some fines, as well as exempt businesses that make less than $250,000 in annual income from the city's unincorporated business tax.
The proposals would have to be approved by the governor and state legislature after a request by the city council.
The city is facing a possible $2.7 billion gap in fiscal 2014 that could grow to $3.8 billion the following year, Liu said.

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Republicans push own "fiscal cliff" plan; talks frozen

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republicans in the Congress pushed ahead on Thursday with a "fiscal cliff" plan that stands no chance of becoming law as time runs short to reach a deal with President Barack Obama to avert a Washington-induced economic recession.
House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner's "Plan B" to limit income-tax increases to the wealthiest sliver of the population appeared likely to pass the House on Thursday evening after it narrowly cleared a procedural hurdle in the afternoon.
However, Obama has vowed to veto the plan, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he will not bring it up for a vote in the Democratic-controlled chamber. White House spokesman Jay Carney called it a "multi-day exercise in futility."
Still, passage of Plan B could give Boehner the political cover he needs to strike a deal that would break with decades of Republican anti-tax orthodoxy.
"Time's running short. I'm going to do everything I can to protect as many Americans from an increase in taxes as I can," Boehner told a news conference.
Though it does not raise taxes on as many affluent Americans as Obama wants, the bill would put Republicans on record as supporting a tax increase on those who earn more than $1 million per year - a position the party opposed only weeks ago.
That could make it easier eventually to split the difference with Obama, who wants to lower the threshold to households that earn more than $400,000 annually. Obama also faces resistance on his left flank from liberals who oppose cuts to popular benefit programs, which Republicans say must be part of any deal.
Obama and Boehner will need to engage in more political theater to get lawmakers in both parties to sign on to the painful concessions that will have to be part of any deal to avert the cliff and rein in the national debt, analysts say.
"They are now in the mode where they have to demonstrate how hard they're trying to get everything they can," said Joe Minarik, a former Democratic budget official now with the Committee For Economic Development, a centrist think tank.
Even as he pressured Obama and the Democratic Senate to approve his plan, Boehner indicated that he was not willing to walk away from the bargaining table.
"The country faces challenges, and the president and I, in our respective roles, have a responsibility to work together to get them a result," Boehner said.
TIME RUNNING OUT
Obama and Boehner aim to reach a deal before the end of the year, when taxes will automatically rise for nearly all Americans and the government will have to scale back spending on domestic and military programs. The $600 billion hit to the economy could push the U.S. economy into recession, economists say.
Investors so far have assumed the two sides will reach a deal, but concerns over the fiscal cliff have weighed on markets in recent weeks. The S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks was up 0.4 percent in Thursday trading, despite a round of strong data on economic growth and housing.
"The closer we get to the end of the year without a deal, the more optimism is going to evaporate," said Todd Schoenberger, managing partner at LandColt Capital in New York.
Shares crept up after Boehner said he was prepared to work with Obama to prevent the fiscal cliff from kicking in.
Lawmakers are eager to wrap up their work and return home for the Christmas holiday, but congressional leaders kept the door open for last-minute action.
The Senate was expected to leave town on Thursday or Friday, but Reid said it could return next week to vote on any deal.
Boehner indicated the House would stay in session after Thursday's vote, scheduled for 7:45 p.m. EST (0045 GMT on Friday).
Several influential conservative groups have condemned Plan B, and some Republicans are expected to vote against it. But passage appeared likely after the House narrowly voted by 219 to 197 to bring the bill to the floor for debate.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, an influential business group that has often tangled with the Obama administration, offered grudging support.
"We are not comfortable allowing tax increases on anyone in this environment. However, we understand that, at times, politics requires compromise," the Chamber's top lobbyist, Bruce Josten, wrote in a letter to lawmakers.
To placate conservatives, Boehner also scheduled a vote on legislation that would shift $55 billion in scheduled defense cuts to cuts in food and health benefits for the poor and other domestic programs.
That measure also would roll back some of the Dodd-Frank financial regulation reforms of 2010. It is not expected to become law.

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Canada's seven-month budget gap narrows to C$10.6 billion

 Canada's federal budget deficit narrowed in the first seven months of the fiscal year to C$10.57 billion ($10.68 billion) from C$13.90 billion in the same period last year as personal and corporate income tax revenues rose and debt charges were lower.
The monthly shortfall in October was C$1.68 billion, compared with a gap of C$2.13 billion a year earlier, the Department of Finance said in a report on Friday.
The Conservative government in October pushed back by one year, to 2016-17, the date it expects to eliminate the deficit. Most economists believe that if the economy continues to grow, the books could be balanced sooner.
Ottawa has estimated a 2012-13 deficit of C$26 billion, including a C$1 billion cushion for risk.
In the April-October period, revenues increased by 3.6 percent, or C$4.9 billion, from the same period in 2011, pushed up by personal income tax and corporate income tax. Program expenses rose by 2 percent, or C$2.7 billion, on increases in elderly benefits and direct program expenses.
Public debt charges decreased 6.1 percent, or C$1.1 billion, on a lower effective interest rate.

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Koomkin.com the new b2b marketplace that connects companies throughout all the Americas

Looking to the global trends, American companies will have to look more and more south of the border for qualified suppliers. Koomkin is already helping companies do that: Enrique Suarez Romo co-founder of the Mexican portal.

Mexico City (PRWEB) December 20, 2012
Ancient Mayans are not just responsible of writing prophecies about the end of the world while drinking hot chocolate; actually they were very good scientists and traders. Honoring this legacy, a group of Mexican entrepreneurs took a Mayan word, Koomkin (that means “to shorten”) to name their new online marketplace. This name was taken in order to bring together a group of new online tools for companies with the purpose of giving all registered firms better web visibility, increase competitiveness and create more business opportunities.
In Mexico, the number of Internet users has been significantly increasing every year, however, many Mexican companies are still reluctant to use the Web to promote their products or services and do business. “We want to provide them with an economic and efficient tool so they can easily show their offer to the world. It is time for Mexican and other Latin American companies to make the most of being now more competitive and cheaper related to their competitors in Asian markets”.
The portal creates an own web page with contact information, chat and pictures for those companies that register for free, as well as a program to make online quotations.
Companies that register through paid memberships can enjoy some services that provides them with competitive advantages: statistics in real time, online marketing campaigns in order to facilitate companies to be identified by search engines, and also the possibility of obtaining a quality certificate with Applus, a business group of certifiers present in more than 40 countries.
The certification gives confidence not only to the companies that offer their products and services in the Koomkin platform, but also to those who are looking for qualified suppliers, increasing exportation and competitiveness.
“We estimate we will be able to have near 37 thousand registered companies basically in Mexico and gradually in the United States (through an alliance with Free Trade Alliance, a San Antonio based organization with a renowned expertise in global trade), Spain and Latin America-, among those around 500 will have a paid membership” Enrique Suarez Romo, co-founder of the Mexican platform that started operating in September, explained. Besides Suarez, the founders of Koomkin are Pablo Garcia (who conceived the idea of the platform), Santiago Miranda and Daniel Alvarez.
Finally the co-founders of Koomkin reported that the companies that dedicate time and resources to digital media get one cost quotation per week, while by being registered at Koomkin they can get up to 300% more than they could get by their own means.

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Fox Web Creations Presents the New World Trade Center Kansas City Website

Web Design in Kansas City is a little more global today with the release of the World Trade Center Kansas City Website, chock-full of great information for international businesses.

(PRWEB) December 20, 2012
Fox Web Creations and The World Trade Center Kansas City have launched a new website - http://www.wtc-kc.com/. Designed for companies already doing business globally, as well as those considering entering the global marketplace, the site boasts resources on everything from the paperwork involved in international business to options for visiting the countries in question.
With experience and operations in Switzerland, Morocco, and France already under their belt, the Kansas City based Web Design firm Fox Web Creations was an excellent partner for this project. CEO and Lead Developer ElAmri "Red" Rida has a personal understanding of the importance of international business and worked closely with the WTC-KC staff to develop the new site. “We wanted the site to be easy to navigate, interactive and helpful to the business community. We also wanted to make sure that the staff of the WTC would be able to easily manage the content themselves, allowing them more freedom to make decisions about their content." Fox Web Creations focuses on web design in Kansas City, and on assisting small and large businesses with their internet marketing and development needs.
“The new site offers everything from help with export documentation and lead generation, to trade data, visits and education,” says Mehgan Flynn, Director of the WTC-KC. “We’re also part of the largest trade network in the world – you’ll find World Trade Centers in 330 cities and 100 countries around the planet. The new website ties into our mission to connect the KC region to the people, data, companies and government agencies that make up the fabric of global commerce.”
Some of the New Website features include:

    A comprehensive calendar of international events in the local community, including:
--    International market briefings

--     International business workshops

--     Intercultural sensitivity workshops

--     Group Trade missions

    ECertify – an easy, online app for Certificates of Origin
    SphereAccess – lead generation for buyers and suppliers.
As a member of the World Trade Center Association (WTCA), WTC-KC can also offer additional resources and services to support the business community in reaching out to international markets. The services include:

    Global market research
    Trade lead identification
    Global trade intelligence
    Intercultural communication training
    International liaison programs
    Discounted access to SphereAccess - a retail buyers and suppliers matchmaking system.
“Now that the new site is launched, we’re gearing up for a new year of WTC-KC programs and services,” says Flynn. “We’ll continue our popular ‘Doing Business In…” programs featuring various countries – China, for one. And, based on a survey of our members, will be offering a series of cultural sensitivity sessions starting this April. We’re also working with the state of Missouri on an intense, three-month export training program for local businesses. So the new year looks pretty full!”
The World Trade Center Kansas City is a partnership of the Greater Kansas City Chamber, the Kansas City Area Development Council, and KCSmartport. Fox Web Creations is a full service Kansas City Web Design, Marketing, Search Engine Optimization (SEO/M), and Responsive Web Design (RWD) firm, located at 4345 State Line Road, in Kansas City, MO 64111. They are dedicated to assisting all businesses, regardless of size, with their web design and development needs.

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Top Realtor in Gainesville VA, Linton Hall Realtors, Launches Interactive Web Experience

A top performing realtor in Gainesville, VA - Linton Hall Realtors - is pleased to announce the launch of an interactive live chat system to aid their website visitors, who are looking to buy or sell homes in the Gainesville, VA area. The addition of the interactive service will allow for expanded real estate client service in an increasingly competitive marketplace.

Gainesville, VA (PRWEB) December 20, 2012
Linton Hall Realtors, one of the highest producing realtors in Gainesville, VA, is pleased to announce the launch of an interactive system to allow real time communications with website visitors. The system will be used to help prospective home buyers search the Gainesville, VA home listings on Linton Hall Realtor's company website. By offering a live chat solution, Linton Hall Realtors expects to help sellers get information they need about listing a home, aid home buyers in finding the right home in the right area, and lead to greater levels of client satisfaction.
Finding homes for sale in Gainesville, VA can be a daunting task. From the Piedmont community in the north down the entire length of Linton Hall Road neighborhoods and communities are springing up. Even as new developments are emerging, some of the older areas are now 15 years old or more. This makes for an area where many families are upgrading and moving within the same community. This is when sellers frequently begin looking for a local agent representative.
Listing a home includes many dynamics. Listing price, marketing the home, and even staging and curb appeal are all important considerations. By implementing the live chat system on the website, people selling their home in Gainesville, VA will be able to interact with a real estate professional right at the moment they begin looking for information. "By providing this type of real time information, we can make the home selling process much easier," said Ashley Leigh, founder of Linton Hall Realtors. "The live chat feature allows us to get critical information to home sellers quickly and easily," he added. Indeed, with programs like the Guaranteed Sale Program, the Move Up to Savings program and even specialized help with short sales, there is a huge quantity of information.
Although there is so much to learn and investigate when selling your home, most sellers conduct extensive research when they are planning to buy new home. Searching for new homes in Gainesville VA is often the more exciting part of the process. That's another reason why Linton Hall Realtors implemented the live chat website feature. "The first thing a buyer/seller does is start searching for their new house. By providing them information when they first begin their search, we can make the entire process work better and smoother," Leigh said. Questions about are schools, planned expansion; home builders and community amenities are all popular questions.
When a user comes to LintonHallRealtors.com, they typically start browsing for a new home and then examining all the program information available to sellers. This process usually continues for weeks or months. When an agent is right there, available for quick questions or even more detailed phone consultations, the home buyer/seller gets exactly the information he or she needs, right at the moment in time it is needed. This leads to an overall improved client experience. "By providing excellent information with real-time technology, we can begin our work with them much earlier in the sales cycle and create a better overall client experience," said Leigh.

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Mission Impossible?: Can Tom Cruise Launch a Box-Office Franchise with 'Jack Reacher'?

LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) - Paramount hopes it's launching a franchise with "Jack Reacher," the Tom Cruise action thriller that hits theaters Friday.
It will be tricky in a crowded holiday marketplace, and Cruise isn't the box-office bonanza he once was. But one need only look back to last year's "Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol" to see how it might work. That film opened to $12 million on December 16 and went on to make $209 million and nearly $700 million worldwide for Paramount.
"Jack Reacher" will be in about 3,200 theaters, and it will have plenty of competition. Universal's Judd Apatow comedy "This Is 40" opens wide Friday, and Paramount's ‘Guilt Trip" and Disney's 3D re-release of "Monsters Inc." opened Wednesday.
A slew of limited releases, led by Kathryn Bigelow's "Zero Dark Thirty," along with this year's winner of the Palme d'Or at Cannes "Amour," and tsunami survival tale "The Impossible" are also competing for moviegoers' attention, along with a number of holdover hits.
No movie, though, will come close to catching reigning box-office champ "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey," which remains in more than 4,000 theaters. Peter Jackson's latest Middle-earth epic will take in north of $40 million, industry analysts say, with "Jack Reacher" and "This Is 40" battling for second with less than half of that.
Warner Bros.' "Hobbit" has rolled to $106 million in the U.S. since opening to $85 million last weekend. Its international total - $188 million as of Thursday - is even bigger.
In "Jack Reacher," Cruise plays an ex-military investigator; the film is based on bestselling author Lee Child's novel "One Shot" and written for the screen and directed by Christopher McQuarrie. It's from David Ellison's Paramount-based Skydance Productions and was produced for about $60 million by Cruise, Don Granger, Paula Wagner and Gary Levinsohn.
Robert Duvall and Richard Jenkins co-star in the PG-13 crime thriller, which has a 53 percent positive rating at Movie Review Intelligence.
No is expecting "Jack Reacher" to match "MI:4" at the box office. The Reacher novels have a following, but nowhere near that of the "Mission Impossible" franchise. Cruise's recent box-office record has been uneven, and the film's Facebook and Twitter activity is not particularly strong.
"Jack Reacher" could wind up playing more like Cruise's "Knight and Day," which opened to $20 million and went on to make $76 million for Fox in 2010, or "Valkyrie," which did $83 million in 2008 after opening to $21 million. Cruise was critically lauded for his foray earlier this year as an aging rock icon in the musical "Rock of Ages," but that was one of the year's bigger box-office duds.
"Jack Reacher" should play strongly with action fans, but Cruise's personal problems could limit its broader appeal.
"I can't imagine his divorce from Katie Holmes and the custody battle hasn't hurt him some with women," BoxOffice.com vice president and chief analyst Phil Contrino told TheWrap Thursday. "Actions fans will come out, but going beyond that demographic is going to be tough for him."
On the other hand, Universal says that it tracking suggests "This Is 40" will do quite well with women -- and women over 25 in particular.
"This Is 40," is, as the marketing campaign points out, a "sort of sequel" to Apatow's "Knocked Up," which opened to $30 million and went on to make nearly $150 million five years ago. Like "This Is 40," that one was written and directed by Apatow and starred Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann.
"40" is the fourth film Apatow has directed, all for Universal ("Funny People" and "40-Year-Old Virgin" are the other two). The ensemble cast also features Albert Brooks, John Lithgow, Megan Fox, Maude Apatow, Iris Apatow, Chris O'Dowd, Jason Segel, Melissa McCarthy and Lena Dunham.
It's R-rated and has a 62 percent positive rating at Movie Review Intelligence. The production budget was $35 million.
"This looks like the strongest comedy of the season," Jeff Bock, senior analyst at Exhibitor Relations told TheWrap, "but it's still a bit of a wild card. It's going to connect with the New York and L.A. crowds; the key will be whether the Heartland audiences embrace it or see it as a little too hip. It will take time to tell, because of the season."
Films released at this time of year tend to open lower because the marketplace is so crowded - by Friday, 11 new films will have hit opened this week - and the fact that many potential moviegoers are districted by shopping and other holiday preps. On the other hand, they often show lasting power and make up what they don't take in on the weekend with stronger showings on the weekdays.
"Things could well come in lower than people are expecting across the board this weekend," Bock said, "but look for many of these movies to make it up over the holidays."
Summit will be looking for that kind of slow build on "The Impossible," the English-language film from Spain based on a true story about a family's fight to survive the 2004 tsunami in Thailand. Ewan McGregor and Naomi Watts, who received a Best Actress nomination from SAG recently, star.
Summit is releasing it Friday in 15 theaters in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and Toronto. The plan is to go nationwide early next year.
"The Impossible" already has taken in $52 million in Spain, the home of the real-life couple upon whom the story is based as well as director Juan Antonio Bayona ("The Orphanage") and screenwriter Sergio Sanchez.
Other limited rollouts set for Friday include Paramount's 3D concert film "Cirque du Soleil: Worlds Away," in 800 theaters; "On the Road," IFC Films' adaptation of the Jack Kerouac's beat generation novel, in four theaters; and "Not Fade Away," the Paramount Vantage tale of a group of 1960 New Jersey friends launching a rock band, written and directed by "Sopranos" creator David Chase, in three locations.
Sony's "Zero Dark Thirty," about the manhunt for Osama bin Laden, got off to a terrific start Wednesday. It racked up $124,848 from five theaters in its first day of release. That's an average of $24,969, making it one of the biggest limited mid-week openings in history.

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ReferralBuzz Announces Partnership with TruliaTwin Cities’ Referral Service for Home Remodeling Experts and Their Customers Partners with Leading Online Real Estate Market

Twin Cities’ referral service for home remodeling experts and their customers partners with leading online real estate marketplace.

Minneapolis, MN (PRWEB) December 21, 2012
Starting in January 2013, ReferralBuzz Inc., in Minneapolis, will be the exclusive partner in the 7 county Twin Cities metro and St Cloud, MN, Madison, WI, Cedar Rapids, IA for the new "Find a Pro - Home Improvement" feature on Trulia. Trulia is a leading online marketplace for home buyers, sellers, renters, and real estate professionals. ReferralBuzz will be the first home improvement recommendation resource on the Trulia website.
Founded in 2011, ReferralBuzz gives consumers a free, easy way to find great service providers - including providers who’ve earned recommendations from social media, neighbors, and friends. ReferralBuzz also gives home remodeling experts the tools they need to market their services and increase referrals using the power of social media.
With unique info on areas people want to live that can’t be found anywhere else, Trulia provides the inside scoop on properties, places, and real estate professionals. Prospective home buyers, sellers, and renters can learn about agents, neighborhoods, schools, crime, commute times, and even ask the local community questions. Meanwhile, real estate professionals use Trulia to connect with millions of transaction-ready buyers and sellers each month via Trulia’s hyper-local advertising services, social recommendations, and top-rated mobile real estate apps.
"The partnership with Trulia will provide a huge benefit to our customers through greater exposure,” says ReferralBuzz Founder Lisa Schneegans. “We will be able to feed information onto the "find a pro" section of Trulia's website from the ReferralBuzz website and provide the inside scoop to homeowners, buyers and sellers on local home improvement service providers."
For ReferralBuzz Service Providers, the partnership with Trulia means:

Service Provider’s ReferralBuzz profile will be seen by hundreds of thousands of consumers interested in home improvement in your service area.
Service Providers ReferralBuzz subscription will include a Trulia "Find A Pro" listing that will be automatically be uploaded from your ReferralBuzz profile.
Referral Buzz Service Providers will be able to participate in Trulia Voices "Ask an Expert"
ReferralBuzz will have the exclusive banner ad on the new Trulia mobile app for our metro area. Subsequently giving the service provider’s profile an opportunity to be seen by thousands of people.
How It Works for Homeowners

To get started, homeowners simply sign on at http://www.referralbuzz.com. Homeowners can view exclusive deals, request estimates and get ideas for their own projects from other customers’ pictures and feedback. Homeowners can sign in through Facebook and see which providers their “Friends” have used and recommend.
How It Works For Service Providers

ReferralBuzz provides a set of very easy to use tools for service providers to help them enhance their business. Automated tools include:
Social Referrals-Get customer referrals through their social networks, the “word of mouth” in the digital age.
Customer Feedback-After a job is completed ReferralBuzz makes the request for feedback automatically.
Stay In Touch Email-This in-touch e-mail system turns great customers into repeat customers and helps customers keep you in mind.
Facebook Posting-Automatically post your projects, photos and specials on your own Facebook page.
Digital Portfolio-Keep your visual assets at your fingertips. Photos sell your service better than any sales pitch. Email your presentation to the prospect, right from your IPad.
Project Communication-Communication during a project is often the key to keeping a job on track. ReferalBuzz makes that easy. And, once the project is done, an automated sequence of feedback requests, social referrals and emails begins. Clients feel well taken care of, long after you’ve left the job site.

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Wall St clings to hopes for budget deal, but market risks rising

NEW YORK (Reuters) - If the United States sails over the fiscal cliff in less than two weeks, it probably will not mean disaster for the stock market, investors said on Friday, but the margin for error is getting dangerously thin.
At heart are fears over how long the U.S. economy, the world's largest, can hold up under the brunt of higher taxes and big spending cuts that would be triggered by the fiscal cliff.
If Washington's inability to reach a deficit-reduction deal persists into late January or provokes a second credit ratings agency to strip the United States of its top triple-A rating, all bets may be off.
"Clearly, if this thing drags on with no deal, eventually markets are going to start to take it on the chin," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management in Chicago, which oversees $38 billion.
Stock markets fell on Friday after a Republican proposal that would have prevented tax increases on all but those earning more than $1 million unraveled amid a conservative backlash.
Though President Barack Obama had vowed to veto the bill, opposition from Republicans stoked doubt about the ability of House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner to win support within his party. That suggested the two sides were too far apart to reach a deal to forestall the $600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts before they are set to begin to take effect in January.
"The fact they couldn't even get the Republicans in Congress to sign on for that is disturbing. If we get into late January, early February and we are still in the soup, then the odds of going into a recession go up, and I just can't believe anybody wants that," said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond Jones Financial.
HEATING UP
If the new year dawns without a deal, Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank, said he would view "any incremental market sell-off as a buying opportunity."
But if things remain in limbo in February, "that is going to leave a mark on the economy," he said. "The way I'd characterize it is that we're sitting in this pot of water and on January 1, Congress turns on the flame underneath. It's comfortable at first, but eventually it's going to start to hurt."
Americans would start to feel the effects in their wallets. As of 2013, payroll taxes would revert to 6.2 percent of Americans' paychecks, up from the 4.2 percent level put in place during the economic downturn.
Higher income tax rates would also start to hit, though that could be delayed by officials in Washington. Still, Americans would start to feel a pinch on their paychecks, which could hurt spending next year. Some investors believe holiday sales are already being affected.
Another risk, said BNY Mellon currency strategist Michael Woolfolk, would be if a second ratings agency cuts the United States' AAA rating, a move that Standard & Poor's made after a similar budget standoff in 2011.
Fitch Ratings said this week it would be more likely to downgrade the United States if the economy goes over the cliff.
"Markets would take that very badly," Woolfolk said. "Stocks sold off by 10 percent after the S&P downgrade in 2011, and I'd expect something at least as severe" if Fitch were to act.
LAST-MINUTE DEAL STILL POSSIBLE
Of course, lawmakers still have 10 days left in 2012 to strike a deal, and some are confident they will return to Capitol Hill after Christmas and do just that.
"So far, the market has been handling setbacks in talks very well, and with a bit of time left on the clock, this time will be no different," said Jim Barnes, senior fixed income manager at National Penn Investors Trust Co.
For some, the political disarray among Congressional Republicans that sent Boehner's "Plan B" to defeat late on Thursday only increased those hopes.
"Given that Reid called Plan B 'dead on arrival' and Obama said he would veto it, the non-passage of this bill due to lack of Republican support makes it more likely, not less likely, that compromise will be reached," said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, which oversees more than $50 billion.
Harry Reid is the Democratic Senate leader.
The "continued positioning and posturing" isn't a huge concern to investors, Woolfolk said. "Neither side has incentive to compromise too much, too soon. They can extract concessions by delaying. So I would not be surprised if it takes until minutes before midnight on December 31."
All the back-and-forth, however, may keep the stock market a bit more volatile than it would normally be so late in the year.
The benchmark S&P 500 <.spx> has gained or lost more than 1 percent in three of the past five trading sessions, while the CBOE Volatility Index <.vix> has climbed more than 20 percent over the past three days.
In a sign of the type of volatility investors may be confronted with, S&P 500 E-Mini futures fell as much as 3.6 percent in after-hours trading Thursday evening, with a 15-point drop in less than one second that resulted in a brief halt in futures trading.
"While last night's mini-crash is a rare event, I do expect bigger moves than we've seen in the past year," said Enis Taner, global macro editor at RiskReversal.com, an options trading firm based in New York.

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Signs suggest better economy if 'cliff' is averted

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fresh signs of a strengthening U.S. economy on Friday suggested that if Congress and the White House can avert the "fiscal cliff," the economic recovery might finally accelerate in 2013.
Consumers spent and earned more in November. And for a second straight month, U.S. companies increased their orders for a category of manufactured goods that reflects investment plans.
In light of the latest figures, some analysts said the economy could end up growing faster in the current October-December quarter — and next year — than they previously thought.
"I see momentum building," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors. "If Washington makes the moves it needs to make, then the economy should pick up speed next year."
That's a big "if." House Republicans called off a vote on tax rates and left budget talks in disarray 10 days before the package of tax increases and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff would take effect.
Still, helping lift the optimism of some analysts was a government report that consumer spending, which fuels about 70 percent of the economy, rose 0.4 percent in November compared with October. Spending had dipped 0.1 percent in October. But that decline was linked in part to disruptions from Superstorm Sandy.
Incomes rose 0.6 percent in November, the biggest gain in 11 months. It reflected a rebound in wages and salaries, which had been depressed in October. Damage from Sandy in the Northeast prevented some people from working at the end of October and reduced wages at an annual rate of $18 billion.
A separate report Friday showed that a category of durable-goods orders that tracks business investment surged 2.7 percent. That gain followed an upwardly revised 3.2 percent jump in October, the biggest in 10 months.
The back-to-back increases followed a period of weakness in so-called core capital goods that had raised concerns about business investment, a driving force in the economy.
The economy grew in the July-September quarter at a solid 3.1 percent annual rate. But some analysts said they thought growth would slow significantly in the October-December period. They predicted that consumers and businesses would cut back on spending because of worries about the fiscal cliff.
But after Friday's reports, Peter Newland, an economist at Barclays Capital, said Barclays is raising its estimate of growth in the current quarter to a 2.4 percent annual rate, from a previous estimate of 2.2 percent.
Naroff said he thinks growth in the fourth quarter can reach a 2.6 percent annual rate. He said he expects growth to hit a rate of around 3.2 percent in the January-March quarter and 3.6 percent in the April-June quarter.
He said those estimates are based on his confidence that Washington policymakers will avert the sharp tax increases and spending cuts, which could trigger a recession if they remain in place for much of 2013.
Naroff said U.S. economic growth would benefit next year from a rebounding housing market, gradual hiring gains that will boost incomes and the likelihood that Europe's financial crisis will ease and dampen U.S. exports less than in 2012.
But he said his optimistic forecasts would be derailed if the economy goes off the fiscal cliff in January, which could send shockwaves through financial markets.
"If the fiscal cliff is breached, the biggest concern is confidence," Naroff said. "I remain hopeful that saner heads will prevail in Washington."
Economists said the budget impasse and the uncertainty it's created about tax rates are reducing consumer confidence. The University of Michigan said Friday that its index of consumer sentiment for December fell to 72.9, its lowest point since July. It was a sharp drop from the November reading of 82.7, a five-year high.
Chris G. Christopher Jr., senior economist at IHS Global Insight, said he still expected holiday retail sales to increase a respectable 3.9 percent this year over last year despite slumping consumer confidence. And he said spending momentum should continue into 2013 — as long as the fiscal cliff is resolved in a way that avoids damaging the economy.
"We are assuming that the fiscal cliff does get resolved, and if it does, we should see strong consumer spending and momentum for the economy in 2013," Christopher said. "But if we go down the fiscal cliff, then the first quarter will not be pretty.

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Scenarios: Seven ways the US 'fiscal cliff' crisis could end

The U.S. House of Representatives' rejection of a bill to raise taxes on just 0.18 percent of Americans - those making more than $1 million a year - has raised questions about the Republican-led chamber's ability to approve any plan to avert the looming "fiscal cliff."
Unless President Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress can forge a deal during the Christmas and New Year's holiday season, the largest economy in the world could be thrust back into a recession because of the steep tax increases and spending cuts that are due to begin in January.
The threat of across-the-board government spending cuts and tax increases - about $600 billion worth - was intended to shock the Democratic-led White House and Senate and the Republican-led House into moving past their many differences to approve a plan that would bring tax relief to most Americans and curb runaway federal spending.
For weeks, Obama and House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, have struggled to find a compromise.
But after a glimmer of hope that a deal was close early this week, Boehner - apparently under pressure from anti-tax House Republicans aligned with the conservative Tea Party movement - pressed the "pause" button on negotiations. He then tried to push a backup plan through the House late on Thursday, only to see his fellow Republicans kill it.
Where do Obama and Congress go from here? Here are some possible scenarios.
* Obama and Boehner go back into their secret negotiations.
Before Boehner started touting his failed "Plan B" to boost taxes on those who make more than $1 million, he and Obama were moving closer together on a plan to raise taxes on certain high-income Americans and cut spending. They could pick up where they left off and quickly cut a deal to bridge the gap.
But a compromise with possibly $1 trillion in new taxes and $1 trillion in new, long-term spending cuts could be a tough sell for both Republicans and Democrats in Congress.
Boehner would have to persuade enough Republicans on the idea of tax increases. Obama, meanwhile, would have to get Democrats in Congress to back cuts to some social safety net programs such as Social Security pensions and Medicare and Medicaid health insurance for the elderly and poor. House Republicans appear to be the tougher sell.
* A huge drop in the stock market sends a loud message to Washington politicians to stop arguing and cut a quick but meaningful deal.
That is what happened in late September 2008, after Congress rejected a massive financial bailout package despite warnings by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson of an economic collapse if the bill failed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 700 points and Congress quickly reversed course, approving the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program just days later.
The "fiscal cliff" may not be as dramatic a situation, but the tax increases and cuts in federal spending could deal a stiff blow to the economy.
* No deal happens in the dwindling days of 2012 and the U.S. government jumps off the fiscal cliff - at least temporarily.
On January 1, income taxes would go up on just about everyone. During the first week of January, Congress could scramble and get a quick deal on taxes and the $109 billion in automatic spending cuts that most lawmakers want to avoid.
Why could they reach a deal in January if they fail in December?
The reason would be that once taxes go up, it would be easier to allow a few of those increases to remain in place - mostly on the wealthy - and repeal those that would hit middle- and lower-income taxpayers.
Such a scenario would mean that no member of Congress technically would have to vote for a tax increase on anyone - taxes would have risen automatically - and the only votes would be to decrease tax rates for most Americans back to their 2012 levels.
* No deal occurs for another six weeks or so.
If Congress does not raise the nation's debt limit, by mid-February the Treasury Department likely would exhaust its ability to borrow. That would put the nation at risk of defaulting on its debt.
Republicans have withheld their approval of the debt-limit increase as leverage to try to get the kind of "fiscal cliff" solution they want: Fewer increases in spending and taxes, and more cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
This is the strategy they employed in mid-2011 during the last fight over the debt limit, which is about $16.4 trillion.
Republicans wrung spending cuts out of Democrats in return for new borrowing authority, but paid a political price. Global financial markets were rocked by the long uncertainty brought on by the standoff in Congress, one ratings agency downgraded U.S. credit standing and Republicans saw their public approval ratings sink.
* Boehner decides on a gutsy move: Call a House vote on a bill that would raise tax rates for families with net annual incomes above $250,000, exactly what Obama has sought.
The plan could pass the House with strong Democratic support and some Republican votes. As soon as it passed, the House likely would leave town for the rest of the year without addressing other Obama priorities such as increasing the government's debt limit.
* A partial deal is struck at any point.
Congress could pass a plan that would put off most of the income tax increases that are due in January, or extend some other expiring tax breaks - namely one to prevent middle-class taxpayers from being subject to higher tax rates aimed at the wealthy under the alternative minimum tax.
* Stock markets do not tank and Washington politicians conclude that the "fiscal cliff" is not such a bad thing.
Under this scenario, Congress and the White House could continue sniping at each other throughout 2013 and 2014 as they try to revamp tax policy and impose long-term spending cuts.

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Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.
A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.
Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.
Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.
"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.
"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.
If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.
For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.
Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.
IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY
Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.
If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.
"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.
"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."
Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.
Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.
"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.
"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."
Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.
The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.
Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.
U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.

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